Wheat values in the September 2010-11 Pool Return Outlook are up between $4 and $30 per tonne from last month’s PRO, depending on class, grade and protein level. The largest increases were seen in high protein, quality wheat as bad weather in Western Canada damaged crops.
Durum is up between $1 and $21 per tonne. Malting barley is unchanged and feed barley values are up $3.
The PRO for No. 1 CWRS 11.5 protein rose to $270 per tonne at port from $249 in August.
No. 3 CWRS rose to $242 per tonne from $229.
Feed wheat rose $215 per tonne from $185.
No. 1 CWAD 11.5 percent protein rose to $250 per tonne from $236.
No. 3 CWAD rose one dollar to $223 from $222 in August.
Feed barley rose to $227 per tonne from $224.
Select CW two-row malting barley was steady at $260 per tonne and select CW six-row was steady at $243.
A complete listing of prices is available at www.cwb.ca.
The CWB said in its PRO report that world wheat fundamentals are tightening, with ending stocks forecast to fall to 175 million tonnes from 195 million, but that could fall further.
Rising corn prices and a large supply of low quality wheat will increase the amount of wheat fed to livestock, resulting in a reduction of year end stocks to 160 million to 170 million tonnes. That will support prices this crop year.
The CWB said demand for tight stocks of U.S. corn will have to be rationed and “corn at $5 a bushel does not seem to have the ability to get the job done” so corn could climb higher, further supporting wheat.
The CWB has priced about 24 percent of the expected 2010-11 crop year deliveries of wheat. A pricing level of 60 percent is anticipated by the end of January.
Canadian durum production is forecast at 3.3 million tonnes, the smallest since 2001-02
However, coupled with 2.7 million tonnes of carry-in stocks, the Canadian supply is sufficient to accommodate a 3.7 million tonne export program, the CWB said.
There is a question whether there will be enough No. 1 and 2 durum to meet demand.
With Black Sea feed barley largely out of the market because of drought, world prices have risen but the board is not sure the levels can be sustained.
“Demand from Saudi Arabia and Asia is expected to remain relatively strong this year, but many buyers appear to be waiting to see if the Australian barley crop puts pressure on the global barley price structure.”
Also, a larger supply of feed wheat could limit feed barley values.
