Canola futures rose Thursday as freezing temperatures were forecast for early Friday morning and again early Saturday over large parts of the Prairies.Drier conditions are expected this weekend but not enough to allow much harvest progress before more rain is expected Monday.Chicago soybeans fell on profit taking after gains in recent weeks. A large soybean crop is expected in the United States.Corn edged higher on thoughts that average yields will be lower than the September U.S. Department of Agriculture prediction.Wheat fell on disappointing weekly U.S. export sales. French analyst Strategie Grains reduced its estimate of the European Union wheat crop by one million tonnes to 127.2 million, which is down two percent from last year.It said only 55 percent of the soft wheat crop would be suitable for milling, down from 66 percent last year.In Winnipeg, November canola rose $5.80 per tonne to $468.40 on 6,956 trades.The January contract rose $5.70 to $462.80 on 2,597 trades.The previous day’s best basis widened to $17.13 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November was 66 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.Winnipeg October barley was steady and untraded at $170 per tonne. December was unchanged at $180.Chicago new crop November soybeans fell 6.25 cent to $10.3625 US per bushel. January fell 6.75 cents to $10.46.December oats rose 3.5 cents to $3.435 per bu. March oats rose 0.5 cents to 3.455.In New York, crude oil for October delivery fell $1.45 to $74.57 per barrel.The Canadian dollar at noon was 97.33 cents, up from 97.26 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0274 Cdn. The loonie has been fairly stable the last two days, when other currencies moved in a wider range after the Japanese government intervened to lower the value of the yen by selling it and buying U.S. dollars. The yen had climbed to a 15 year high against the U.S. dollar.The TSX composite closed at 12,173.35, up 29 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.36 points to 1,124.71. It appears to be another year of wide discrepancies in forecasts of China’s corn production.The difference is important because it affects whether China will import corn, which strongly supports international grain prices.The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) said today the crop could climb to 169 million tonnes, up 3.1 percent from last year.That was up one percent from its August forecast.However, private forecaster Shanghai JC Intelligence (JCI) has a corn forecast of 158.7 million tonnes and said it is monitoring crops and might have to lower that estimate.The fact that China imported corn last crop year for the first time in four years lent authority to private forecasts that put the 2009-10 corn crop much lower than the official government estimate.China consumes 150 to 160 million tonnes of corn a year.The government says it won’t need to import this year, but JCI believes will have to import up to five million tonnes. The CNGOIC shaved its wheat production figure to 114.4 million tonnes, down from 115.1 last month and about equal with last year’s production.The rapeseed crop harvested earlier this summer was unchanged at 12.6 million tonnes, compared to 13.6 million last year.
Weather drives canola higher again
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