Winnipeg canola futures fell again Thursday, still weak from Wednesday’s Statistics Canada report that put year-end stocks 800,000 to one million tonnes higher than expected.That means there is unlikely to be tight supply while the harvest slowly proceeds.It also likely means the 2009 crop was larger than had been assumed.Soybean futures weakened on harvest pressure and general uncertainty at China’s Dalian exchange stemming from an investigation into trading on the rubber market.Wheat futures climbed on speculation from U.S. Wheat Associates that American wheat exports could climb to 36-37 million tonnes from 24 million last year because of shortages in other exporting countries. Forecasts that include the potential for frosts on the Canadian Prairies early next week also supported wheat.The United States Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply and demand report on Friday. It is expected to drop its world wheat production forecast and also lower its U.S. corn yield forecast.The CWB has sent a recommendation to the federal government for increases to the 2010-11 initial payments for wheat, durum and barley. Amounts will be announced when the approval process is completed later this fall.The board also said harvest is about 18 percent complete across the Prairies, which is similar to this time last year and about one week behind normal. Progress is best in Manitoba. Frost last week south of Edmonton likely caused some damage.The Saskatchewan crop report said 13 percent was combined and an additional 31 percent is swathed or ready to be straight cut.The five-year average for the province is 35 percent combined and an additional 29 percent swathed or ready to cut.Six percent of Saskatchewan canola has been harvested.With sowing now complete in Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange raised its estimate for wheat plantings to 10.55 million acres from the 10.39 million estimated previously. Rain last week improved the condition of parched crops in Argentina, and more rain is forecast for the coming days, the exchange said. In Winnipeg, November canola fell $1.70 per tonne to $459.30 on 12,685 trades.The January contract fell $1.60 to $464.20 on 5,483 trades.The previous day’s best basis widened to $15.13 per tonne under the November contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.The 14-day Relative Strength Index for November climbed to 61 according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is an RSI of 30 indicates an over sold market and 70 indicates an over bought market.The Canadian dollar at noon was 96.82 cents US, up from 96.53 the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0328.Canada’s monthly trade deficit hit a record $2.7 billion, up from $1.8 billion in June, indicating a struggling manufacturing sector.The TSX composite fell 0.1 percent to 12,033.53 and the S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent to 1,104.21.Winnipeg October barley fell $5 to $170 per tonne on 10 trades. December was unchanged at $180.Chicago September soybeans fell 3.5 cents to $10.3775 US per bushel. New-crop November fell 2.75 cents to $10.46.September oats rose 6.25 cents to $3.0175 per bu. December oats rose 10.75 cents to $3.1475 per bu. In New York, crude oil for October delivery fell 42 cents to $74.25 US per barrel.
Large stocks weigh on canola price
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