Winnipeg canola futures mostly fell Thursday on commercial hedge selling as farmer selling increased.
Warmer than normal spring weather with good moisture on the eastern Prairies also put downward pressure on prices, but there are still concerns about dryness in Alberta, which helped lift distant deferred contract months.
Statistics Canada will release its seeding intentions report Monday and traders believe it will show a one million acre increase in canola area.
The strong loonie continued to weigh on canola prices.
Rising soybean prices, supported by technical factors, limited canola’s fall.
Grain analysts Informa Economics forecast U.S. soybean production of 3.342 billion bushels, slightly less than last year, and a record corn crop slightly larger than last year’s 13.13 billion bu. Wheat production was seen falling eight percent to about two billion bu. It forecast U.S. wheat stocks at the end of 2010-11 would rise to one billion bu.
The May canola contract fell $1 to $378.30 per tonne on 5,697 trades.
The previous day’s best basis narrowed to -$2.25 per tonne off the May contract in the par region, according to the Winnipeg ICE Futures daily report.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index for May canola fell to 43, according to BarChart.com. The rule of thumb is that an RSI of 30 indicates an oversold market and 70 indicates overbought.
July canola fell $1 to $384.80 on 8,869 trades.
New crop November fell 70 cents to $388.70 per tonne on 3,608 trades.
The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.87 cents US, down from 1.0016 cents at noon the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0013 Cdn.
The Winnipeg May barley contract was steady at $151.10 per tonne. There is no open interest in the May contract. July was steady at $145.50. December was steady at $150. There were no trades.
Chicago May soybeans rose 8.75 cents US to $10.0425 per bushel. November soybeans rose eight cents to $9.85 per bu.
May oats rose 2.5 cents to $2.145 per bu.
Light crude oil for June delivery rose two cents to $83.70 per barrel.
