The Conservative government is proposing that by 2014, House of Commons rural representation will be proportionately diminished in line with the decline in rural populations in Canada.
Last week, democratic reform minister of state Steven Fletcher introduced legislation to expand the Commons to 338 MPs from 308 members, awarding the additional 30 seats to fast-growing urban areas in British Columbia (seven new seats), Alberta (five new seats) and Ontario (18 new seats).
He said the change would take place after the 2011 national census and the mandatory redrawing of electoral boundaries. It would likely not take effect until 2014.
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Fletcher, a Winnipeg MP, said the existing redistribution formula would shortchange the fastest growing provinces. The government is proposing a new formula that would preserve existing seats for the “slow and no” growth provinces while recognizing urban areas where immigrants settle.
“The government deeply believes in the principle that each vote in a Canadian election should have an equal weight,” Fletcher told an April 1 Parliament Hill news conference.
The Northwest Territories, Atlantic provinces, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec would continue to have fewer voters per constituency than the three fastest growing provinces, but Fletcher said the balance would be better.
With an estimated 70 seats that depend on a significant rural component, the rural parliamentary voice will be relatively diminished if the bill passes.
“It clearly means less voice for rural Canada and that is inevitable,” University of Saskatchewan political scientist David McGrane said. “The population is increasingly urban.”
He said the trend will escalate as Canada continues to urbanize. The Senate is not an answer to Parliament Hill rural representation unless it is elected and more legitimate, he said.
McGrane’s solution to making sure the rural voice is heard in national political discussions is a controversial one – let the premiers voice rural concerns.
“The only hope for rural Canada is in the premiers becoming spokesmen for their concerns,” he said. “And that would involve giving the premiers more clout in national discussions.”
Statistically, rural ridings will continue to be overrepresented in the Commons under the Conservative proposal that average riding populations be 108,000. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, it would be barely more than 70,000 and in Prince Edward Island, little more than 25,000.
Fletcher said the additional urban and suburban seats will help correct an underrepresentation of ethnic minorities that largely settle in cities.
With the instability of a minority government and an election likely within a year, it is not certain the bill will be approved.
