CHICAGO, Ill. (Reuters) – Helped by good early rains and improving economics, South American soybean acreage and production should increase in 2009-10, says a respected U.S. analyst.
Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor, has projected that 2009-10 South American soybean production will be 125 million tonnes, up more than 30 percent from 95.8 million in 2008-09.
“It’s going to be a much, much bigger crop, if the weather continues (to be) good, as it has been so far,” Cordonnier said in a presentation at the CME Group in Chicago.
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Cordonnier estimated Brazil’s 2009-10 soybean crop at 62.5 million tonnes, above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s current estimate of 62 million.
For Argentina, Cordonnier estimated soybean output at 53 million tonnes, up sharply from 32 million in 2008-09 and above USDA’s 2009-10 figure of 52.5 million tonnes.
Argentina is recovering from extreme drought last year, so yields should rebound.
Also, farmers are planting more soybeans and less corn to chase higher returns for soybeans, which require less fertilizer and are not subject to the Argentine government’s controversial export taxes.
“Government policy is forcing the farmers to give up on corn and give up on wheat and grow more soybeans,” Cordonnier said.
“The (Argentine) soybean area is now about 10 times bigger than the corn area.”
Paraguay is also expected to produce a bigger soy crop in 2009-10, while production in Bolivia and Uruguay should be little changed from 2008-09.
Planting is off to a good start in Brazil, where seasonal rains have arrived early, Cordonnier said. He projected 2009-10 Brazilian soybean acreage at 55.1 million acres, up from 53.4 million in 2008-09.
