The federal government is proposing to spend $2.15 billion on Agriculture Canada programming and administration in the fiscal year beginning April 1.
An additional $489 million is set as the 2005-06 budget for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency.
MPs will vote later this month on the Agriculture Canada spending plans as part of the $195 billion federal spending plan.
And at least in agriculture’s case, the numbers before Parliament are almost certainly fiction. If past experience is a guide, Agriculture Canada’s spending will far exceed what is proposed now.
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The government uses supplementary estimates throughout the year to ask for parliamentary approval for unanticipated spending. With farmer pressures for more aid, demand on the federal treasury almost certainly will be greater than now forecast.
The current fiscal year ending March 31 offers an example. This time last year, Parliament was presented with departmental spending estimates for the year of $2.1 billion. The CFIA budget was predicted at $477 million. On Feb. 25 when treasury board secretary Reg Alcock tabled the second set of supplementary estimates for 2004-05, he reported that Agriculture Canada spending will be at least $3.95 billion. The CFIA will have spent $599 million.
The demand on the treasury because of poor prices, markets and weather are reflected in the supplementary requests.
Last week, finance minister Ralph Goodale noted in an interview that when the agricultural policy framework was developed and announced two years ago, the safety net budget was set at $1.1 billion annually for a five year total of $5.5 billion. That was Ottawa’s 60 percent of projected APF spending, with the provinces to add another 40 percent.
In each of the first two years of the program, federal spending has exceeded the target by $700 million, draining $3.6 billion from the $5.5 billion less than halfway through. The provinces have seen the cost of their share rise as well.
“It was originally projected over five years,” Goodale said Feb. 24. “It would appear that it will be consumed faster than that so we’ll have to look at whether (it) will need replenishment before the five year period. It appears to be likely.”
This week in Ottawa, federal and provincial agriculture ministers gather and the affordability of the provinces’ share of escalating costs will be a key agenda item.
