DENVER, Colo. – The United States has always considered Asia its best meat customer but 2008 export numbers show Mexico and Canada are the beef producing giant’s best friends.
Mexico imported $1.2 billion US worth of beef and variety meats while Canadian imports were valued at $700 million.
That came as a surprise to retiring U.S. undersecretary of agriculture Chuck Lambert who has spent the last six years working to reinstate America’s position in Asia after BSE halted exports in 2003.
While some inroads have been made, projections of continued growth in Japan and South Korea have not met expectations.
Read Also
Machinery automation runs through 2025 Agritechnica innovation awards
Computer vision and AI processing for farm machinery show up many times in Agritechnica’s 2025 innovation award winners.
“We may never get back to where we were in 2003,” Lambert said at the recent International Livestock Congress held in Denver.
The U.S. reported record agriculture exports last year at more than $111 billion. Those numbers are unlikely to be repeated in 2009 as the deepening economic crisis heralds higher unemployment and price deflation around the world.
Last year, U.S. meat exports hit 4.18 billion pounds, a 61 percent increase over the same period a year earlier.
Pork exports for 2008 earned more than $4.5 billion, an increase of 59 percent, while beef exports in the period were valued at $3.37 billion, up 40 percent.
The big success story was the return to South Korea.
That country could import $500 million worth of beef but it has a mandatory identification program and may demand the same of product it imports.
It, too, could face an economic crisis and scale back imports.
Japan imported only $400 million worth of U.S. beef in 2008, due largely to age restrictions of imported beef. In 2003, it imported $1.3 billion worth.
Hong Kong is open but Canada has sewn up that market, which will continue to improve with the recent announcement to accept bone-in products like ribs, porterhouse steaks and T-bones later this spring.
Taiwan is open to the U.S. and it imported $100 million. Vietnam became a surprise importer, although the Americans suspect much of what is exported there is rerouted to China, which does not officially import U.S. beef.
At home Lambert predicts a gloomy 2009.
About 10 percent of the American population may be receiving unemployment benefits, which offers no more than $359 per week.
That has a significant impact on people’s grocery budgets and they will be looking for cheaper items, said John Lundeen, executive director of market research for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
Lundeen studies long-term trends in consumer preferences from a U.S. perspective.
Most recent studies show the recession is making consumers choosier as they look for a healthy product that is convenient and matches their budget.
When people are short of money, they cut back on luxuries like beef steaks and substitute ground meat, which Lundeen called trading down. NCBA surveys said about half those polled were changing their beef purchases and a third said they would “trade out,” or switch to another protein source.
