Market analysts have come out with early estimates of what will grow in prairie fields this year.
They predict farmers will veer away from cereals, turning to oilseeds and special crops for better returns.
But price predictions across the board are not likely to melt the winter ice.
One broker based in Sedley, Sask. says farmers he talks to aren’t happy about the price outlook.
“They’re pretty upset and I guess you can’t blame them,” said Charles Hume of Keystone Marketing Services.
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“Last year, they were so optimistic with the high values.”
Agriculture Canada analysts expect canola prices to be in the $390 to $430 per tonne range, which is about eight percent lower than the estimated price range for this crop year.
The trade expects farmers to plant between 12 and 14 million acres of canola. An analyst with Growers’ Marketing Services said no matter how much of the seed farmers grow, they’ll be able to find a home for it.
Mike Jubinville said the world vegetable oil market is starting to swing back. He expects Canada’s crushers to have record numbers in 1997-98.
Analysts expect farmers to plant about 1.9 million acres of flax, which would be up from 1.5 million last year.
Strong prices for old-crop flax will be one magnet pulling farmers toward the crop. But Jubinville isn’t holding out for new-crop prices of $9 a bushel.
Hume said his customers started booking new-crop prices in mid-December of $8.20 per bushel net to the farmer.
Last week, new-crop flax prices were around $7.62 a bushel.
Analysts expect wheat acres to drop as carryout stocks rise by 50 percent because of this winter’s rail transportation problems.
Feed grains could be the biggest losers this spring and oat and feed barley prices continue to plummet.
Growers’ Marketing Services is encouraging farmers to use October futures prices over $135 per tonne to start pricing new-crop barley.
“Western Canada is certainly well-stocked when we come to feed grain supplies and it’s going to take a while to chew through that,” Jubinville warned.
Hume expects Saskatchewan growers to pick up on peas.
He said many have tried the pulse crop for the first time in the past couple of years with promising results.
The good experience linked with positive new-crop prices will likely lead to more acres, Hume said.
