The much-anticipated explosion in hog production on the Prairies is slow to ignite and federal economists are predicting it could slow down even more this year.
Livestock herd numbers compiled by Statistics Canada report that only in Manitoba did the hog expansion show life last year.
The provincial herd increased 2.8 percent to just under two million. It now is the largest west of Ontario, displacing Alberta.
Elsewhere on the Prairies, hog numbers declined slightly last year.
The largest increase in hog numbers occurred in Quebec, the traditional hog-producing province, which added 60,000 pigs to its 3.465 million herd in 1997.
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Nationally, the pig herd has grown for seven straight years and federal economists continue to argue that the cheap dollar and lower feed grain prices, the result of the 1995 end of prairie grain transportation subsidies, make Canada a good place to invest in hogs.
“Economies of scale have led to profits for feed efficient producers,” says a Statistics Canada commentary.
But a surplus of red meat inventories in the United States and economic crisis in the Asian market is leading to sharply lower prices, the federal analysis notes.
“This will reduce producers’ margins and may slow the herd growth later in 1998.”
Meanwhile, the cattle herd contracted as the traditional cattle cycle continues.
Everywhere but in Manitoba, the cattle and calf herd shrank last year as slaughter and live exports increased to near-record levels and the breeding stock herd contracted.
The result has been a slight strengthening of prices from 1996 lows “although they remain well below the peaks of 1993.”
The sharpest decline, more than four percent, came in Saskatchewan where the herd fell to 2.42 million. Alberta cattle and calf numbers fell slightly to 4.95 million.
In Manitoba, meanwhile, the herd grew almost four percent to 1.25 million.
Statistics Canada said the Canadian sheep and lamb flock numbered 628,900 head, marginally larger than year-earlier levels.
The sheep and lamb industry continues to supply a relatively small portion of domestic demand.
“A significant share of the domestic consumption is imported, mostly from New Zealand and Australia.”
