It’s often said that great athletes should retire while they’re still at the top of their game.
Brian Carlson has decided to take that same approach in his farming business.
The 53-year-old farmer and long-time durum grower from Midale, Sask., has decided to get out while the getting’s good.
“I want to go out on a high,” he said.
“I figured this was the time.”
Carlson has always grown durum but he’s never seen anything like this.
Based on the latest Pool Return Outlook from the Canadian Wheat Board, he can expect to receive a 2007-08 farmgate price of around $420 a tonne, or $11.43 a bushel.
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“It’s unreal,” Carlson said.
“I can’t imagine that a world shortage would cause an increase like this and I can’t believe that foreign countries would pay that kind of money. They never have before.”
He suspects that given record high wheat and durum prices, along with high prices for commodities such as flax and canola, other farmers in his situation may be having similar thoughts about retiring sooner rather than later.
“If they aren’t thinking about it, they should be,” he said.
“Who knows what’s going to happen next year?”
Even though he’s getting out of farming, Carlson would like nothing better than to see prices stay at current levels for years to come. But given his experience with grain markets over the years, he wouldn’t bet on it.
“I hope I’m wrong but I really think this is going to come back down to earth before too long,” he said.
Among the farmers he talks to, the big question everyone is asking is how long will the bull markets last. Will prices next year return to their customary level of $5 or $6 a bu? If they do, will the price of inputs go down with them?
Carlson said durum growers are already thinking about what they should do next year: plant fence-to-fence durum or cut back on the assumption acreage will go up and prices go down.
That’s a decision he won’t have to make.
He has sold half his land and rented the other half, and has booked an auction sale. None of his three sons is interested in farming and he has a business selling grain bags that will keep him busy.
“No second thoughts,” he said.
