RED DEER – A feeble El Nino this winter has left footprints as it dies away.
There was no ensuing drought in California, the Pacific Northwest or southwestern Canada.
“This was not a normal El Nino,” said climatologist Art Douglas, who provided a weather report to the Alberta Beef Industry conference held in Red Deer Feb. 24.
Based at Creighton University in Colorado, Douglas provides long range weather forecasts to commodity groups.
The 2006 El Nino fought against cold waters from the Baja Peninsula to Alaska coastline, and was responsible for torrential rainstorms along the West Coast in November and December.
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It also provided moisture to the Plains and helped build a good snow pack in the Rocky Mountains.
However, there are drought conditions prevailing in the centre of the North American continent that have spread from the southern plains of the United States and into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The Calgary-Edmonton corridor has good moisture conditions but northern regions are drier.
World weather is also displaying anomalies.
The eastern half of Australia continues to suffer severe drought partly due to the El Nino.
“Since this El Nino is dying in a hurry, it could be they will reverse (drought) a little earlier, maybe in July. This drought is probably going to stay another three or four months,” he said.
South Africa also tends to have bad droughts associated with El Nino years. Its corn growing area is dry but other agricultural areas appear in good shape.
Brazil and Argentina have relatively good conditions for corn and soybean development.
China has had below normal precipitation since August in its northern regions, but the south experienced near normal conditions. Its rapeseed area should have a good harvest thanks to a warm winter.
Last year that region was plagued with drought and cold weather.
For many regions in North America, the forecast indicates a cool spring and hot summer.
When there is a quick end to an El Nino, the prime crop growing area in the U.S. is considerably warmer. A degree or two above normal can have a detrimental effect on crops.
Cold storms are coming from Alaska to Western Canada this spring.
Spring precipitation in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan could be about 30 millimetres below normal, but temperatures will be cool.
Northern Alberta and portions of northern Saskatchewan could have above normal precipitation. Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba can also expect a cold, wet spring.
The U.S. corn belt will likely be below normal for precipitation as well, but after a wet fall and winter, that is welcome news for spring field work.
Douglas’s summer outlook is based partly on a shift of winds from an east flow to a westward flow and back again.
Known as the quasi biennial oscillation of high level winds, its behaviour is predictable and it appears the winds are shifting to an eastern phase.
The effects will be felt by summer over the U.S. Midwest and into Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan with hot, dry conditions.
The Rocky Mountain region should experience normal precipitation.
A high pressure pocket north of Hawaii and a storm track moving into British Columbia should deliver above normal precipitation for June but then shift to warmer, drier conditions for B.C. and Alberta.
Douglas also expects an active hurricane season for 2007, which was squashed last year by El Nino and active trade winds in the Atlantic.
