Prairie wheat farmers are almost equally divided on whether the Canadian Wheat Board should keep its monopoly, at least as long as they believe the board could continue to exist as a player in a “dual market,” according to a public opinion poll released this week.
However, if the choice is between the existing CWB monopoly or an open market, then a strong majority of wheat producers favour the current CWB system, including a small majority in Alberta, says pollster Ipsos-Reid.
“It absolutely shows the importance of the question, who frames it and how it is framed,” said Ipsos-Reid senior vice-president Curtis Johnson.
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“People support a new system as long as the wheat board option remains.”
If the option of a dual market is on the ballot, wheat producers polled were split 48-46 percent in favour of the current system, with Manitoba producers the most supportive of the CWB monopoly, Alberta the least and Saskatchewan evenly divided.
If the dual market option is removed, in which the CWB competes with grain companies, 64 percent said they would prefer to stick to the existing CWB system.
It is a different story in the barley sector, where 53 percent said they would opt for a totally open market rather than keep the wheat board.
Pollsters interviewed 534 wheat producers, producing a result that Ipsos-Reid says is accurate within 4.2 percentage points 19 times out of 20. A barley producer sample of 383 produced a margin of error of five percent.
Johnson said the poll conducted late last year shows a farming community deeply divided on the issue of the board monopoly.
“Many farmers believe a dual market is possible and I personally don’t see why not,” he said.
“From the wheat board point of view, if I had a monopoly and half the people who are forced to deal with me wished they had a different option, I would be concerned.”
The poll stands in contrast to results from the wheat board’s director elections, which have given pro-board candidates a strong majority.
Johnson said it probably reflects a “disengagement” from the board question by its most fierce opponents. They do everything they can to avoid dealing with the board and that would include the elections.
By contrast, board supporters want to keep something and are motivated to cast their votes.
“It’s a bit like the question of the queen,” Johnson said.
“Those who want to see the queen removed (as Canadian head of state) are likely to be far less active on the issue than are the loyalists.”
He said the message to farmers should be that if they want the grain marketing system changed, they have to work for it.
“If you want change, you have to be involved in the process.”
Barley producers, when given the option of the status quo or a dual market, chose the dual market by 56 percent. Even when the dual market option was dropped, 53 percent said they supported an open market without the CWB.
In Alberta, open market support among barley producers was 62 percent while in Saskatchewan open market advocates held a seven point advantage at 49 percent.
Only in Manitoba was the wheat board monopoly favoured over the open market by a slight margin.
When barley producers were asked directly in 1997 whether they wanted to continue marketing their product destined for export or domestic human consumption through the CWB, 63 percent said yes.
However, critics grumbled that then-agriculture minister Ralph Goodale had created a bogus question, refusing to allow a “dual market” question onto the ballot. Producers were forced to choose between a market with the CWB or without it.
Johnson said the Ipsos-Reid poll suggested the answer to that question might be different today.
