WINNIPEG (Staff) – Australia could be the wild card in coarse grains markets for 1995-96.
Maggie Liu, an analyst with the federal government told delegates at last week’s Grain World conference that if weather down under gets back to normal before 1995 crops are planted, Australia could be able to export barley.
This would affect the large Asian markets that Canada and the U.S. are currently enjoying for coarse grains. Liu said she expects world consumption to exceed production in 1995-96, but she also forecasted total world trade to remain about the same at 86 million tonnes.
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Liu predicted production of these grains will decline next year. Because of last year’s record U.S. corn crop, world coarse grain production reached an all-time high of 866 million tonnes.
But fertilizer costs for corn are high. Canadian producers are shifting into more attractive alternative crops and U.S. farmers will likely plant more soybeans because of the government’s 7.5 percent acreage reduction program.
World consumption of coarse grains is also breaking records. Liu predicted it will reach 851 million tonnes for 1994-95 because of low prices, less competition from feed wheat and demand in Asian countries. She said these factors will increase consumption in 1995-96.
Liu said world stocks are expected to fall to historically low levels of about 15 percent of use by 1995-96. “If we don’t have a good crop, the price will increase substantially,” she said.
Closer to home, she said prairie hog and poultry farmers will use less imported corn because of higher prices and a more normal feed wheat situation. U.S. farmers will use less corn for feed, but this will be offset by higher industrial use in ethanol production.
