We hear rumors
These are nervous times for Canada’s grain farmers. The crop is adequate, the summer prices were excellent but now the games start.
The spot prices on the commodity exchanges are yo-yoing with each new speculative story. We hear of a big crop and the street price drops. Then the Canadian Wheat Board sends out a calming message that while there’s a lot of straw out there the kernel count in the heads indicates only an average crop.
One of the less than lovely aspects of the commodity market is the price pressure exerted by the rumor mill.
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We hear of wheat midge and Bertha army worms. We should know shortly what effect they had on this promising crop. We hear scattered reports of hail, but not as many as in other years. Sometimes farmers say they wish this rumor-mongering would go away, and then they start rumors of their own.
It’s all part of the realization that it is crunch time for the Prairies’ major economic activity-generating industry.
This crop could give young farmers a much needed leg up the economic ladder. We would rather not have to shrug and refocus our hopes on next year.
To keep the bad-luck demons away we tell terrible jokes like the recent remark of a Ukrainian farmer: “It’s a Russian crop, lots of size but nothing in the head.” Or the Russian reply: “It’s a Ukrainian crop, a complete bust until the price goes up and suddenly there’s lots of wheat.”
Self-serving rumors abound, but the only reliable indicator comes when the wheat stalks are licked up by the combine and the amber kernels stream into the hopper box.
