American pork too productive for prices
The United States Department of Agriculture released its hog inventory as of Sept. 1, showing a slight decline in sow numbers but forecast increased pork supplies.
Increasingly productive sows are weaning more live pigs and higher carcass weights are being achieved.
Average U.S. carcass weights have increased every year since 1996 and are expected to rise a further one percent from 87.5 kilograms in 2000 to 88.5 kg in 2001.
With increased pork supplies, it is likely American hog prices will decline to the low to mid $30s (U.S.) per hundredweight at their lowest point this fall, but the average price for the fourth quarter could be close to $40.
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In addition, farrowing intentions for the next two quarters are up by one percent over farrowings in 1999.
To date, the American slaughter is at 69.1 million head compared to last year when 71.9 million were killed by Sept. 1.
This past week, American marketings declined and packers had to raise their bids to get the hogs they needed for the week.
Iowa-southern Minnesota hog prices (at plant mean, 51-52 percent lean, live equivalent) remained above $44 (US) per cwt. for the week.
In Canada, Manitoba posted actual average prices of $155 ckg.
Saskatchewan average pool price was also $155.
To date, Canada has slaughtered 13.5 million head, a slight increase over last year’s 13.1 million.
Manitoba reports its hog slaughter is well below the projected level of 95,000 hogs per week and may end 2000 with fewer than four million hogs slaughtered during the year, instead of the almost five million hogs projected last January.
Higher than expected hog prices and poor profit margins have discouraged processors from killing as many animals as predicted, said Manitoba Agriculture market analysts.
Feeder cattle sales steady
On the beef side, feeder cattle are moving through the system on schedule.
Last week saw 56,790 sold, although as numbers increase, prices are trending barely steady to lower than last week. Steers in the 500 to 600 pound range traded between $145-$160 per cwt.
The fed cattle trade is steady and overall volumes should lighten over the next few weeks. Finished steers were in the $85-$90 range while heifers were $86.75-$91.
Fewer slaughter cows have shown up in the market mix. Compared to last year, marketings are down 20 to 25 percent. Cow exports are down by 10 percent.
