The latest estimates from the International Grains Council show increased wheat crops in the United States, Europe, Australia and Turkey, and smaller crops in Argentina, Russia and China.
But the net result is a world production forecast of 597 million tonnes, just one million tonnes lower than last month.
That is the second largest world crop on record.
The council sees world trade down one million tonnes to 95 million, reflecting weaker demand in Asia. World consumption is forecast at 601 million tonnes, 13 million more than in 1997-98, mainly due to lower prices that encourage feeding wheat to livestock.
Some small yields
Smaller harvests in China, India and Russia mean that stocks are likely to be drawn down in those countries.
However, those of the five major exporters are forecast to rise by a total of seven million tonnes to 48 million.
