The severity of damage suffered by the United States winter wheat crop will become clearer this week.
The U.S. Wheat Quality Council annually tours the major wheat producing areas of the U.S. to assess crop yield and quality.
The Kansas winter wheat tour began April 30 and was to wrap up May 3. Groups also tour Nebraska, Oklahoma and Colorado, but Kansas is the most important because of its primacy in wheat production.
Last year, the 60 participants piled into 16 cars to drive four routes in the state, making 479 stops.
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This year’s results can be viewed at www.wheatqualitycouncil.org.
We might sound like a broken record, repeating the perilous condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop, but there is a growing potential for a sharp price rally.
Bill Tierney, a Kansas State University agricultural economist, last week estimated the Kansas wheat crop at 289 million bushels.
That is 59 million bushels less than last year.
Other statisticians had estimates as low as 225 million to 237 million bushels.
Acreage abandonment estimates for Kansas varied from 12 to 33 percent.
And the warm, windy weather that has been punishing crops continued last week, further stressing them.
As of April 30, 24 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated very poor to poor, compared to 22 percent the previous week and 15 percent at the same time last year.
Only 41 percent was rated good to excellent, compared to last year’s 61 percent.
Meanwhile, an opposite weather trend – too much rain – has European Union officials considering wheat export restrictions because of fears of big crop losses in France.
French analyst Strategie Grains has pegged 2001 EU soft wheat production down 6.7 percent at 89.1 million tonnes, while EU grain trade lobby Coceral puts the crop down 7.1 percent to 88.7 million tonnes.
Constant rain has made spring seeding difficult and has damaged the winter crop.
Agronomists say fungal diseases like septoriosis and wheat rust, brought on by excessive rains, are spreading.
On the demand side, the fear of a world recession reducing consumers’ ability to buy wheat has lessened with news that the American economy grew a surprising two percent in the first quarter.
If these trends continue, wheat markets must eventually break free from moribund corn and soybeans, and rally.
