Now that the holidays are over, farmers are checking out market prospects and crop production shows while turning their minds to the 2001 growing season.
Analyst Randy Strychar expects oats to figure prominently in cropping plans in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan this year.
Strychar, who runs Statcom Ltd. in Vancouver, said he thinks oat acres will rise by five percent in the eastern Prairies this spring.
Farmers planning to grow oats should consider locking in current fall prices for up to a third of what they plan to grow, he said.
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He warned that spot prices in fall could look a lot like today’s nearby oat prices, which are trading at a 30 cents per bushel discount to current fall bids.
Prospects for 2001-02 oat prices depend heavily on the world supply of and demand for coarse grains, particularly American corn. Lately, United States corn exports have been dogged by the controversy over genetically modified Starlink corn.
South American corn crops have been blessed with beautiful weather, Strychar said.
He thinks oat prices have logged their lows, but might not have much room to jump higher through the next crop year.
Dennis Galbraith, buyer for Can-Oat Milling, said he’s “mildly optimistic” about oat prices in 2001-02.
By the end of July, world stocks of coarse grains will be lower than they were in July 2000 and July 1999, said Galbraith.
He agreed with Strychar that much depends on the 2001 U.S. corn crop.
If U.S. corn growers don’t dramatically increase corn acres, and if they experience some moderate weather setbacks, then coarse grain prices could start to move up, said Galbraith.
“By domino effect, oats (prices) will be dragged along with them.”
U.S. farmers have had three consecutive years of excellent corn yields.
“I’m optimistic you can’t have four bumper crops in a row, but that’s the farmer in me,” Galbraith said.
