SAO PAULO, Brazil – Brazil’s 2002-03 soybean exports are expected to grow 11 percent to a new record, while meal and oil shipments will expand but less ambitiously, says the Association of Vegetable Oils Industries, or Abiove.
The world’s No. 2 soy producer and exporter should ship a record 17.2 million tonnes of soybeans in the February 2002-January 2003 year, compared with 15.5 million this year, said Abiove Dec. 14.
Association president Carlo Lovatelli said unprocessed soybeans, rather than meal and oil exports, will still predominate because of international trade barriers that protect crushing industries abroad and Brazil’s tax code.
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Soymeal exports should grow two percent to 10.4 million tonnes next year over the current year, and oil shipments should grow about three percent to 1.55 million tonnes.
“Our current bilateral trade negotiations with China and India to lower or eliminate soymeal and oil tariffs should help to revive the domestic soy industry in the future,” said Lovatelli.
Brazil’s crushing industry has shrunk 15 percent over the last few years because of flagging soyoil and meal exports.
China should grant an initial soyoil quota of 1.7 million tonnes in 2002 as it gradually phases out its quota system over the next five years in accordance with World Trade Organization guidelines.
“This is too long for us to wait and they really want to participate in trade, so we would like to see a bilateral agreement that outpaces the WTO schedule,” said Lovatelli. “We have a team heading to China on Jan. 12 to work on this.”
China is the top buyer of Brazilian soybeans but has increasingly restricted the imports of meal and oil in recent years to protect its domestic crushing industry.
Brazil’s soy crop now in the field is expected to be 41.8 million tonnes, eight percent larger than the last harvest. The soy industry should crush 23.2 million tonnes of the new crop into meal and oil, compared with 22.2 million from the current crop, according to Abiove data.
Soybean stocks are expected to open the new year at 429,000 tonnes with meal stocks at 460,000 tonnes and oil stocks at 203,000 tonnes.
Brazil is the world’s No. 2 soy producer and exporter after the United States and accounts for more than 20 percent of global soy supplies.
