As global temperatures rise over the next few decades, Canada’s politicians will have to rewrite agriculture aid programs and crop insurance rules to reflect more volatile conditions, says a federal report on global warming.
And grain farmers in the western prairies might want to consider buying land in the eastern prairies if they want to stay in the business.
Less rain in western regions will decrease yields while more moisture in the eastern prairies will make it a better place to farm.
“In the prairies, production of cereal crops planted in the spring is expected to drop by up to a third in western areas and increase by up to two-thirds in eastern areas due to changes in available moisture,” said The Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation.
Read Also
Russian wheat exports start to pick up the pace
Russia has had a slow start for its 2025-26 wheat export program, but the pace is starting to pick up and that is a bearish factor for prices.
The report was prepared for Environment Canada and released Dec. 1 when Canada announced a target of cutting one percent per year from national greenhouse gas emissions over the next 18 years.
In addition to the usual predictions of a longer growing season, a drying of the Great Plains and southern prairies and extension of agriculture northward, the study contained several new predictions:
- Increased grain yields in British Columbia would be possible if irrigation is increased.
- Oilseed yields will be reduced in areas now in production.
- In the western prairies, less rainfall will dry out pastures, cut feed production and put stress on the livestock industry. Warmers winters will help.
- Although there will be longer frost-free growing seasons and warmer winters, the benefits from this “will in all likelihood be diminished by less soil moisture in all regions and under all climate change projections.”
- Farm incomes will be more volatile and less predictable.
All that led the department to suggest climate change will force governments to create more flexible support for farmers.
They could include “altered subsidy structures to reflect actual climate risk, crop assistance programs linked to soil conservation and strengthened rural education programs to encourage sustainable land use practices.”
