GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS
OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE
ICE canola futures are trading down $3 to $4/tonne so far this morning…marking a fifth straight day of losses…down 13 of the past 15 trading sessions (today included) for a loss of $59/tonne on the front month Jan contract. Rough month so far for the canola market…lump of coal rather than Christmas gift.
Chicago soybean futures have fared no better…leaking fractionally to a penny lower this morning and plunging $1/bu in the past month. Bean futures remain soft as traders adjusted some of their positions ahead of the holidays…despite news of China buying more soybeans.
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AM Market Report – April 9, 2026
GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE Grain markets are in the green to start this morning….
CBOT corn futures are managing modest fractional to 2 cent/bu gains this morning. The corn market on Wednesday showed some very modest resilience despite losses in soybeans and SRW wheat. Corn continues to draw price support from solid export demand, though pressure from the wheat market weigh on prices. Cheaper wheat can compete with corn demand in feed markets.
US wheat markets are pushing higher… Minnie spring wheat futures are 2 to 3 cents higher, HRW up 2 to 4 cents, and SRW wheat is steady to a penny higher. But wheat futures markets remain trapped in price downtrends and near their contract lows due to global supply pressures and progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine which triggered selling by speculative investors.
Traders continue to factor in favorable crop weather in South America. Until January, the weather trend in central Brazil remains bearish for the grain markets.
In Other News
– Trump hasn’t threatened ripping up North American trade deal in private talks, Carney says… Prime Minister Mark Carney says US President Donald Trump hasn’t given him any indication he’s willing to walk away from the North American free trade deal, he told CBC News in a year-end interview.
While Trump has previously floated pulling out of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in front of cameras at the White House, he hasn’t done so privately, Carney said. Comments have instead focused on reviewing and adjusting the current agreement. The prime minister also said current sectoral tariffs…such as those on steel, aluminum and lumber…will be part of the CUSMA negotiations, saying the US should recognize that allying with Canada is in Americans’ best interest.
Despite there being a free trade deal currently in place, the US has still hit Canadian exports of steel and aluminum with tariffs of 50%, lumber with tariffs of 10% and some automotive exports and other products such as kitchen cabinets with tariffs of 25%. Trump being a free/fair trader indeed…more like a trade bully. Canada has no retaliatory tariffs on US goods at this time.
Meanwhile, an upcoming US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs could bring more uncertainty to Canada. The levies could be struck down if the court rules against the administration. In that case, the White House has indicated it has backup plans ready, which is where it could get hairy for Canada. The tariffs in question are the ones that have huge exemptions for Canadian goods…if those are lifted and replaced by new ones, there’s no guarantee of the exemptions continuing.
Trump’s trade representative says the US will be targeting Canada’s beer and dairy rules in the upcoming CUSMA review next year.
– US lists demands Canada must meet to extend CUSMA… US trade officials are signalling that Canada will need to make policy changes if it wants long-term certainty under the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), as the trade deal comes up for mandatory review next year. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told members of US Congress Thursday that, while the trade deal has delivered benefits for American exporters, Washington is not prepared to automatically extend it for another 16 years without addressing specific and structural issues.
(CUSMA) has been successful to a certain degree, he said, according to a document shared after Greer s closed-door meeting, adding the gains do not outweigh what he described as structural shortcomings.
The United States is calling on Canada to expand access to its dairy market and address concerns about exports of certain industry products. While Canada allows a limited amount of US dairy to enter tariff-free under CUSMA, Greer told US lawmakers that Canadian policies unfairly restrict market access for American products. However, a CUSMA dispute settlement panel has rejected complaints from the US Trade Rep s office over how Canada is allocating its dairy import quotas.
Greer also addressed Canada s Online Streaming Act and Online News Act, which bring both streaming and news platforms under Canadian cultural and broadcasting rules. Canada insists on maintaining its Online Streaming Act, a law that discriminates against US tech and media firms, as well as a number of other measures that restrict digital services trade, Greer said.
Other Canadian measures flagged by Greer include provincial bans on US alcohol products, procurement rules in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, and what he describes as complicated customs registration for Canadian recipients of US exports.
– EU reaches initial agreement on tighter EU-Mercosur safeguards… The European Union struck a provisional deal on Wednesday to set tighter controls on imports of farm products resulting from a planned trade agreement with South American bloc Mercosur, potentially meeting some complaints of critics of the deal. The EU and the bloc of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay concluded negotiations last December to create the EU’s largest ever trade accord in terms of tariff cuts, some 25 years after negotiations were launched.
The deal has proven contentious. Countries led by France and Italy have said they are not ready to back the trade deal and have demanded additional measures to protect their farmers.
The European Commission presented the accord, for approval in September and sought to soften opposition by adding a mechanism that would allow Mercosur preferential access for some farm products, such as beef, poultry and sugar, to be suspended. It said the trigger for launching an investigation should be if the import volumes rose by more than 10% per year or prices fell by that amount in one or more EU members. However, the European Parliament voted on Tuesday for a lower trigger level of 5%, compared with a three-year average of imports.
In the end, they decided that 8% should be the trigger, the Danish presidency of the EU said.
They also agreed a declaration spelling out EU measures to carry out checks, including in Mercosur countries, to support farmers and to insist that production standards such as on pesticides and animal health will be met.
– US ethanol production notches another all-time high… US ethanol production has reached record levels for the fourth time this year. The US Energy Information Administration says production averaged 1.031 million barrels per day last week, rising 26,000 from the week before that and 28,000 from a year ago. The year s run to several all-time highs is at least partially due to industry demand expectations, with three of those four record weeks coming since Halloween.
US ethanol stocks of 22.353 million barrels were a decrease of 157,000 on the week and 283,000 on the year.
– Ukrainian grain exports curtailed by Russian attacks… Ukrainian wheat exports have been curbed as Russia’s recent heavy attacks on Black Sea ports and energy facilities have forced the shutdown of some grain export terminals, Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC said. Ukraine is a major global wheat grower and exporter, shipping about 70% of its wheat harvest for export via the country’s Black Sea ports. Food exports account for the majority of Ukraine’s total exports.
Russia has increased attacks on the port hub in the southern Odesa region this month, leaving about a million households without power after one of the attacks. UAC said in its weekly report that Ukraine had exported 359,150 tonnes of wheat by mid-December, out of 1 MMT contracted for export for the month. The union said that some export terminals have halted operations and the port is operating at 20% of capacity.
“We see that for the second week in a row, one of the central ports has been unable to start up and operate normally,” UAC said. “Traders have no idea what to do. It’s dangerous to store grain at the port, and logistics are not working properly…there are constant power outages and constant disruptions with locomotives.”
– Ukraine 2026 rapeseed harvest may exceed 3 MMT… Ukraine has slightly reduced its rapeseed acreage for the 2026 harvest, but the harvest may repeat the 2025 level of 3.3 MMT, UAC said. Ukraine is a large rapeseed producer which exports most of its output to the European market.
Outside Markets
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 228.29 points on Wednesday to settle at 47,885.97 and the S&P 500 down 78.83 at 6,721.43, while Canada s S&P 500/TSX composite index slipped 13.91 to close at 31,250 points. Early Thursday, the March Dow Jones Futures are up 233 points.
North American and European stock market indices are rising in cautious trade this morning ahead of European central bank interest rate announcements and crucial US inflation data. Wall Street futures were in positive territory after major US markets closed lower yesterday as AI spending jitters weighed on tech stocks. TSX futures are also turning higher after Canada s main stock market closed slightly lower yesterday.
Earlier this morning, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported US consumer prices rose less than expected in November, giving investors hope that inflationary pressures may be cooling enough for the US monetary policy (interest rates) to be eased more than Wall Street anticipates. The US consumer price index rose at a 2.7% annualized rate last month, a delayed report from the BLS showed. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected CPI to have risen 3.1%.
Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also cooler than anticipated, increasing 2.6% over 12 months. It was expected to have increased by 3%.
Softer [US inflation] figures should keep [Federal Reserve interest rate] cut bets alive, supporting equities and bonds and weighing on the US dollar, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note.
The March US Dollar Index is down 0.107 at 97.895. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.72 US cents.
Feb crude oil futures are up $0.18 at US $55.99/barrel. Oil prices are up slightly this morning as investors assessed the likelihood of further US sanctions against Russia and the supply risks posed by a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers.
Further measures targeting Russian oil could pose an even bigger supply risk to the market than US President Donald Trump s Tuesday announcement that the US would blockade sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, ING analysts said in a note.
Grain Markets
Chicago soybean futures are leaking fractionally to a penny lower to start this morning. Bean contracts posted losses of 3 to 4 cents at Wednesday s close. Jan beans are down a half cent this morning at $10.58/bu. Technically, chart support for the Jan contract ranges from the $10.63 to $10.70 chart gap…but is trading below that level after this week s continuing sell-off. Jan is technically oversold now, but the chart still looks awful, with the 200-day moving average being tested ($10.55).
Soymeal futures are edging between $1 and $2/ton higher this morning after dropping $4 to $5/ton on Wednesday. Soyoil futures are down a modest 3 to 7 points right now after finishing steady to 16 points higher yesterday.
On Wednesday, USDA announced a US soybean sale to China totaling 198,000 tonnes. An additional 125,000 tonnes sold to an unknown buyer. The window for US sales is tight, with Brazil s crop almost completely planted and early harvest just weeks away. So if you are keeping track at home, China has now purchased 4.4 MMT of US soybeans this season, which is 36.7% of the 12 MMT target. Export demand from China continues to fall short of many expectations.
US President Donald Trump yesterday announced a $11 billion military arms sale to Taiwan which has triggered condemnation overnight from Beijing. That s not likely to help trade relations…nor US soybean sales/shipments to China.
Favorable crop weather in South America during December…a critical crop development month…also has traders’ attention.
Chicago corn futures are trading fractionally to 2 cents/bu higher this morning. The corn market posted gains of 2 to 4 cents on Wednesday. March corn continues to operate in a mostly sideways range between $4.35 and $4.50/bu.
Corn demand continues to be solid, with record US ethanol output and exports. EIA data from Wednesday showed another record US ethanol corn grind for the week ended Dec 12, up 26,000 barrels per day week/week to 1.131 million bpd. Despite the increased output, ethanol stocks saw a draw of 157,000 barrels to 22.353 million barrels.
The trade s watching the potential for excessively wet weather in Brazil and drier conditions in Argentina, both of which would have at least some impact on early crop development. But generally, South American crop conditions are characterized as good.
US wheat markets are trying to poke modestly higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures up 2 to 3 cents, HRW gaining 2 to 4 cents and SRW wheat steady to a penny higher. The US wheat complex posted mixed action on Wednesday, though spring wheat was down 3 cents in the nearby contracts.
The International Grains Council on Wednesday reported Argentina’s FOB wheat prices to be the least expensive in the world at US $206/tonne, followed by Ukraine. China canceled 132,000 tonnes of previously purchased 2025/26 US white wheat, likely switching to a less expensive origin.
The competitive pricing that boosted US wheat sales during the first half of the marketing year has evaporated as world supplies have swelled, and global prices have dipped.
Traders continue to monitor the robust wheat harvest in the Southern Hemisphere and overwintering conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, in addition to talks aimed at ending Russia s war on Ukraine.
USDA s December US/world supply/demand report confirmed a bearish outlook, with global wheat production increased by 9 MMT to a record 837.8 MMT. This record output, driven by major gains in key exporters like Canada, Argentina and the EU, significantly outpaces global use…with world wheat ending stocks projected by USDA now to rise to 274.9 MMT.
CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET
ICE canola futures suffered their fourth straight day of losses on Wednesday. Losses in Chicago soybeans helped to pressure, as did declines in European rapeseed. On the other hand, soyoil and palm oil managed gains, along with crude oil.
Since Statistics Canada estimated 2025 Canadian canola production at a new record high of 21.803 MMT in its Dec. 4 crop production report, the March canola contract has lost almost $34/tonne or 5.3% as of yesterday s close…down $54/t since Nov 28. Lagging export demand is also undermining canola, with strong export competition also coming from Australia.
Jan canola futures ended Wednesday a modest $1.40 lower at $596.70/tonne, March canola dropped $2.80 to $608.90, and new crop November was down $2.40 at $629.10.
For today… canola futures are down another $4/tonne this morning, with the front month Jan contract off $3.90 at $592.80/tonne…now testing its lowest levels in nine months, with little supportive news to underpin the market.
There s nothing positive going on with canola right now. The lack of export demand from China remains of great concern amid the ongoing trade dispute…making it difficult to take prices higher. There is a heightened of a large Canadian canola carryout looming for the 2025-26 marketing, which could exceed 4.5 MMT.
Canada produced a record large 21.8 million tonne canola crop in 2025. But crop-year-to-date exports are well off what moved the same time a year ago. With a stocks-to-use ratio around 22%…that would be near the high end of the past 15 years.
Without fresh export demand, canola could find direction from activity in the US soybean market. However, soybeans and soyoil have also been in a tailspin overt the past month.
Flax Market Update
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Flax is sitting in a good position following this year s harvest, said Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask. A really good flax crop this year. Acres were up and the quality on an overall basis was definitely better than what we have seen in at least five years, maybe 10, Shiels added. He said there s a possibility of more flax being planted come spring.
Statistics Canada reported earlier in December that Prairie farmers brought in an estimated 454,460 tonnes. That s up from nearly 258,000 tonnes combined last year and well above the five-year average of about 383,700 tonnes. Virtually all of Canada s flax is produced on the Prairies. It s been a good year, a little bit of a resurgence for flax, Shiels said, noting the increase in flax largely came at canola s expense.
While Canadian flax production pales in comparison to the record 21.80 MMT of canola harvested in 2025, Shiels said there are a few factors favouring flax going into 2026. One of those is pricing. Shiels said flax continues to maintain its premium over canola of $2 to $3/bu, despite brown flax pulling back to about $16.50-$17.00/bu.
Good pricing also fueled the increase in flax production this year, as farmers were earlier in the year able to lock in $19/bu vs $14 to $15 for canola.
Shiels said the demand for flax is strong, particularly when it comes to the bakery and health food markets. Also, the United States hasn t imposed a tariff on its imports of Canadian flax.
However, he wasn t sure if flax prices would improve between now and when spring planting begins in 2026. If canola prices stay where they are, we could see another bump up in flax acres, Shiels said, adding that it depends on flax s premium over canola. If that remains when the new crop pricing comes out, we will see (an increase).
Although canola s outlook is currently bleak, as the market grapples with this year s record harvest grapples versus poor exports, Shiels suggested any increase in canola prices could push up flax prices just to try to stay competitive.
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