AM Market Report – September 29, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $4 to $6/tonne weaker to start Monday morning…creating new overnight session lows…following the lower tone of CBOT soybeans and soyoil. Nov canola futures declined $4 over the past week ended Friday. Note that ICE Canada Futures trade in canola will be closed Tuesday (Sept 30) for the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation holiday.

Chicago soybeans are currently down 3 to 5 cents/bu this morning, while meal higher and soyoil lower. CBOT corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents/bu weaker this morning. US wheat markets are mixed to mostly down a penny.

Grain markets are wavering as the harvest season remains in high gear, with generally large yields are expected. Seasonal hedge selling pressure from the commercials looms, which is also keeping speculators timid on playing the long sides of the grains.

US grain markets reeled last week amid reports that Argentina cut export taxes on ag commodities early in the week before stabilizing. US corn, soybeans and wheat continue to struggle moving in the same direction, which led to largely sideways trade throughout this week. The advancing US soy and corn harvests put further supply pressure on futures prices, though doubts over the size of corn yields have lent support to that market.

Soybeans posted a second weekly loss after China made large purchases of Argentine cargoes this week, further snubbing US supplies amid the trade war between Beijing and Washington. US soybean farmers have so far been shut out of China, their top export market.

There continues to be trader positioning ahead of Tuesday’s USDA US Quarterly Grain Stocks Report (Sept 30).

In other news…a shutdown of the US government is looking all but inevitable and there’s growing concern the Trump administration is poised to use it as an opportunity to launch mass firings of federal employees. It’s now less than 48 hours until the 11:59 p.m. Tuesday deadline for Congress to approve a spending resolution before a new fiscal year begins and the US government’s discretionary spending tap is turned off.

While impasses threatening a shutdown have become so routine in the US that you might be tempted to yawn, Donald Trump’s recent unprecedented flexing of presidential powers provides plenty of reason to believe that this one could play out like never before.

News emerged over the weekend that the US president will meet the Republican and Democratic congressional leaders on Monday afternoon, but both sides warned against interpreting that as a sign of an imminent deal.

In Other News

– Canadian agriculture hit hard by Chinese tariffs… Canadian agricultural leaders are sounding the alarm over the growing impact of Chinese tariffs on key exports, warning that the country’s farmers and agri-food businesses are facing billions in losses. Last week, the House of Commons Standing Committee on Agriculture and Agri-Food heard testimony from major industry representatives about the economic fallout from trade restrictions, particularly on canola and peas.

Rick White, President and CEO of the Canadian Canola Growers Association, told committee members that the current situation could be even more damaging than the 2019 canola dispute with China. “At that point, seed exports to China dropped from $2.8 billion in 2018 to just $800 million in 2019. Even two years later, we hadn’t fully recovered. This time, we’re looking at 5.9 MMT of demand locked out of China,” White said. “Farmers are taking it on the chin,” he said, urging the government to prioritize reopening the Chinese market.

Greg Cherewyk, President of Pulse Canada, echoed the concerns noting China’s 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian peas, which was imposed earlier this year. “Over decades, Canadian farmers built this market from 20,000 tonnes to over 2 MMT,” Cherewyk said. “In the past five years alone, we’ve shipped $3.7 billion worth of peas to China, but this tariff is forcing buyers to turn to competitors in the Black Sea region.” He warned that the loss of market share could be permanent, with no immediate alternatives to absorb the volume. Since the tariff announcement, yellow pea prices have dropped 43% and green peas by 50% resulting in an estimated $637 million in farmgate losses.

White and Cherewyk both called on the federal government to act urgently to restore market access and advocate for a trade policy that protects Canadian agriculture from becoming collateral damage in geopolitical disputes.

– Informal discussion on the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles… Federal officials say a review of the government’s decision to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles is informal and there’s no specific deadline. The news comes as Canada tries to recalibrate its trade relationship with China, which imposed heavy tariffs on Canadian canola in a move widely seen as retaliation for the EV tariffs.

Liberal M-P Kody Blois (BLOYZ) travelled to China with Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe earlier this month and has suggested that Canadians can expect to see more high-level outreach to Beijing.

Chris Davison of the Canola Council of Canada says they’re encouraged by the recent engagement between Canada and China, but did not take a position on the E-V tariffs, saying it’s a political issue that requires a political solution.

– Alberta yield estimates tick mainly higher… Alberta major crop yield estimates are mostly improved from two weeks ago, with the harvest advancing past the three-quarter pole. The latest weekly crop report on Friday pegged the average 2025 canola yield in the province at 42.1 bu/acre, up 0.8 bu from two weeks ago, while barley and oats were raised 2.6 and 0.9 bu, respectively, to 72.6 and 76.2 bu/acre. The average expected spring wheat yield was bumped 0.7 bu higher to 54.6 bu/acre. On the other hand, the average pea yield was reduced 0.6 bu to 46.8 bu/acre.

With the revisions, the provincial major crops yield index now sits at 25.2% above the 5-year average and 17% above the 10-year average.

Provincial yield estimates are mixed compared to the Sept. 17 Statistics Canada crop production report, which put the average Alberta canola yield at 41.5 bu/acre, barley at 68.9 bu, oats at 79.9, and spring wheat at 54.7 bu. The average pea yield was estimated by StatsCan at 40.2 bu.

– August canola crush falls from previous month… The Canadian canola crush in August was down from the previous month, but still above the last year and the five-year average. Statistics Canada’s monthly crush report pegged the canola crush for August…the first month of the new marketing year…at 867,944 tonnes. That was down 10.3% from the July crush of 968,515, but 2% higher than the same month last year (850,529 tonnes) and 14% above the August average for the previous five years.

The 2024-25 canola crush totaled 11.412 MMT, up 3.4% from 11.033 MMT in 2023-24. Ag Canada is forecasting the crush to rise further in the 2025-26 crop year, up to 11.8 MMT, based on expanding domestic crush capacity and rising demand, especially from the biofuel sector.

– Canada needs to use more canola-based biofuel… Crushers say Canada’s consumption of canola-based biofuel is woefully inadequate. Canola oil accounted for less than one-quarter of the feedstock for the biodiesel and renewable diesel used in Canada in 2024, according to the latest Biofuels in Canada annual report prepared by Navius Research. It was the feedstock for 21% of the biodiesel and 24% of the renewable diesel used in Canada last year.

Canada used 449 million litres of biodiesel and 1.46 billion litres of renewable diesel in 2024. 64% of the renewable diesel consumed in Canada in 2024 was made from either tallow or used cooking oil (UCO).

There are suspicions that some of the imported UCO-based biofuel is mislabelled palm oil biofuel, which has sustainability concerns due to the deforestation associated with palm plantations.

– COCERAL revises EU grain crop higher… In its fourth forecast for the 2025 crop, COCERAL estimates the total grain crop in the EU-27+UK at 306.8 MMT. This would be up from the 279.1 MMT harvested in 2024 and significantly higher than the 300.7 MMT projected in June.

COCERAL, the European association that focuses on agricultural trade, said wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 147.4 MMT compared with 143.1 MMT forecast in June and 125.6 MMT last year. Upward revisions have been mainly made for France, Germany, Poland and southeastern Europe due to favorable weather conditions and better-than-expected yields after the harvest has been completed in almost all regions.

The EU-27+UK 2025 barley production is forecast at 63.8 MMT, up from the previous forecast of 59.2 MMT and from the 57.5 MMT reached in 2024. This year’s wheat crop is the largest and the barley crop the second highest in 10 years.

The EU-27+UK 2025 corn crop forecast has been revised sharply lower, mainly due to adverse weather conditions in southeastern parts of the EU. Production is now seen at 56.7 MMT, down from 60.6 MMT forecast in June and down 6% from last year’s 60.2 MMT.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is estimated at 21.6 MMT, well above the 20 MMT forecast in June and almost 4 MMT higher than the 17.9 MMT reached last year. Northwestern Europe, particularly France, saw better harvest results than expected.

– Cordonnier cuts US crop pegs… Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his US average corn yield estimate by 2 bu to 182 bu/acre with a neutral to lower bias. He notes: “Early corn yields are generally being disappointing, which could be an indication that southern rust has caused more problems than originally anticipated.”

Cordonnier cut his US soybean yield by 0.5 bu for the second consecutive week to 52.0 bu/acre and maintains a neutral-to-lower bias. He mentioned the quick and dry end to the growing season as a yield hinderance.

Cordonnier left his Brazilian estimates at 173 MMT and 140 MMT for soybeans and corn, respectively. His Argentine estimates are at 49 MMT for soybeans and 54 MMT for corn.

– Trump pledges tariff revenue to US ag… In an interview at the White House, US President Donald Trump said: “We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers.” US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says the administration is weighing an aid program modeled after the approach taken during Trump’s first term, when payments were given to offset losses incurred from the first trade war with China.

– US clarifies a bevy of ag related items and announces cash subsidy payments… USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins addressed several key issues presently impacting the US farm economy last week at the Kansas City Ag Outlook Forum. According to USDA, Between 2020 and now, seed expenses have increased 18%, fuel and oil expenses increased 32%, fertilizer expenses increased 37%, and interest expenses increased by a whopping 73%.

In response, effective immediately, the Antitrust Division of the US Dept of Justice will work closely with USDA to scrutinize competitive conditions in the ag marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition. Rollins noted, “The success of our farmers is a national security priority, and at USDA we are looking at every option to ensure the future viability of American agriculture.

USDA also released $2 billion in remaining funding for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) (cash subsidies paid directly to US farmers) and announced the purchase of more than 417,000 tonnes of American grown commodities to support international food assistance programs.

Rollins noted a quick turnaround for the funds saying, “I’m excited to announce that the remaining $2 billion of ECAP funding will be delivered within the week.” That completes the $10 billion Congress approved, with $5.5 billion dollars out of $16 billion paid so far in supplemental disaster relief.

– Canada GDP grew in July… Canada’s monthly gross domestic product rebounded from three months of contraction to grow by 0.2% in July as mining, manufacturing and wholesale trade boosted growth, data showed on Friday. Canada’s GDP had shrunk in the second quarter by 1.6% annualized and economists were closely tracking the July GDP growth figure to get an indication of whether there will be a contraction in the third quarter. Two consecutive quarters of contraction is considered a technical recession.

A preliminary estimate showed August would most likely see no growth but avoid a contraction, Statistics Canada said, as increases in services-producing industries were likely to be offset by goods-producing sectors, it said. But the advanced estimate is not always accurate and could change.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a GDP growth of 0.1% in July from a 0.1% contraction in June.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.5% last week as policymakers said the balance of risks was shifting toward a weakening economy and away from rising inflation.

Even with the stronger July, activity for the third quarter is tracking slightly weaker than projections in the Bank of Canada’s most recent outlooks. That sets the central bank up for one more rate cut, perhaps as early as its decision at the end of October, depending on the inflation and labour market data still to come.

– Don’t get caught sleeping on NH3… If fall applications of anhydrous ammonia (NH3) are a go-to for your fertility program…or you expect them to be this year…consider calling your supplier asap to lock in product. Waiting to buy NH3 could result in derailing your post-harvest nutrient game plan, according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX.

Read the full article by Rhonda Brooks below titled…

Why Anhydrous Ammonia Demand Will Soar This Fall

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 299.97 points higher on Friday settling at 46,247.29, while the S&P 500 was up 38.98 points at 6,643.70. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are up 133 points.

Global stocks are generally higher coming into this morning as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that could delay the release of key economic data. Wall Street and Canada’s TSX stock index futures are up. In Canada, stock markets will be open tomorrow, but bond markets will be closed for the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

US President Donald Trump was set to meet with top Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday about possibly extending government funding. Without a deal, a government shutdown would begin Wednesday. If a government closure continues into October, it may muddy the latest picture of the economy for the US Federal Reserve at its Oct. 29 meeting, and leave the central bank relying on private data for its next interest rate decision.

New US tariffs on items including heavy trucks and patented drugs are also set to take effect on Wednesday.

Meantime… Global equities are likely to extend a rally into year-end, given a resilient US economy, supportive stock valuations and a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, according to a report from Goldman Sachs and reported by Bloomberg. “Good earnings growth, Fed easing without a recession and global fiscal policy easing will continue to support equities,” Goldman wrote in a note. “With anchored recession risk, we would buy dips in equities into year-end.”

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.289 at 97.535 ?on investor concerns about the potential US government shutdown. The Canadian dollar was flat against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.80 US cents.

Nov crude oil futures are down $1.81 at US $63.91/barrel. Oil prices slipped as crude started to flow through a pipeline from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years.

Also…Reuters reported OPEC+ would likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday as the group tries to further regain market share. OPEC+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels per day to boost market share.

Meanwhile, terminal operators in a major oil port in east China’s Shandong province are set to introduce measures to ban shadow fleet vessels and curb visits by other old tankers, according to an official notice seen by Reuters and a tanker tracker. The measures, to take effect from November 1, would ban vessels using fake International Maritime Organization numbers and ships of 31 years or older, which traders said would target what is known as the shadow fleet that transports oil under Western sanctions.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 5 cents/bu lower to start this morning, but have operated within a consolidation range over the past week following a collapse lower the week before. Bean futures posted gains of 1 to 2 cents/bu on Friday, with Nov falling back another 11.75 cents on the week. Soymeal futures are up $1 to $2/ton this morning, though the nearby Oct contract fell back $14.10/ton last week. Soyoil futures are down 30 to 41 points this morning, with Oct ban oil losing 43 points last week.

Weekly CFTC data showed the spec fund crowd in CBOT soybean futures flipping back to a net short position of 29,302 contracts as of last Tuesday (Sept 23), a move of 31,589 contracts to the short side during that week. Managed money also held a net short position of 898 contracts in soyoil futures, with their net short in soymeal increasing to 103,269 contracts as of last Tuesday. That was the first time all three in the soy complex have been net short since March.

USDA’s weekly US soybean export sales report took total US export commitments to 11.002 MMT as of Sept 18, 37% below last year for the current week. No China sales hurts.

China made short order of Argentina’s zero export tax holiday last week, as the $7 billion sales limit was reached in just 3 days thanks to aggressive sales by the farmer and buying by China. The aggressive buying by China was estimated at 38-42 cargoes of soybeans for Nov/Dec shipment. China has also come out and said it is avoiding purchases of US soybeans as Reuters is reporting a Chinese commerce ministry spokesman saying that the US should remove unreasonable tariffs and create conditions for free bilateral trade if China is to return as a regular US soybean importer.

Analysts are looking for USDA to show September 1 US soybean stocks at 325 million bu in Tuesday’s US grain stocks report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg range from 295 to 366 million bu.

Chicago corn futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower this morning. The corn market posted losses of 3 to 4 cents across the front months on Friday, with the Dec contract slipping back 2 cents last week.

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money adding back 14,624 contracts to their net short position in corn futures as of Sept 23. That took their net position to 94,675 contracts net short.

Export Sales data now has US corn export sale commitments at 25.757 MMT, a record for the third week in the marketing year and 75% above the same week last year.

Corn has solid overall demand, but any potential extended rally might be limited by that expected record US production.

Heading into tomorrow’s US grain stocks report, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for USDA to show 1.336 billion bu of US corn on hand as of September 1. The range of estimates is 1.26 to 1.45 billion bu.

Traders are also monitoring the US harvest pace and planting weather in Argentina and Brazil. Most of the trade was expecting generally good week-to-week US harvest progress, even with recent rain delays.

US wheat markets are mixed to slightly weaker this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are steady, while the winter wheats are steady to a penny lower. The wheat market posted losses Friday across the three US markets to end the week. Spring wheat futures posted losses of 5 to 6 cents on Friday, though Dec managed to hold onto the most modest 1/4 cent gain on the week.

Technically, traders are reluctant to lift their bearish sentiment bias as wheat futures hold at/near contract lows…though some degree of “basing” seems to be developing.

The weekly USDA export sales report has export sale commitments for US wheat now at 13.699 MMT, which is up 23% from last year at this time and the highest since 2013/14.

Traders will next focus on Tuesday’s USDA’s Small Grains Summary (Sept 30), which will try to assess the 2025 US wheat harvests. Analysts expect US wheat production to be very close to the 1.927 billion bu estimated in the August and September USDA reports, if not slightly less.

Meanwhile, the US Grain Stocks report, released on the same day, will provide insights into wheat demand through a quarter of the US wheat marketing year, which, if export demand is any indication, should be strong.
Analysts are looking for 2.054 billion bu of US wheat stocks on hand on September 1 according to Bloomberg’s survey. The range of estimates is 1.975 to 2.22 billion bu.

US winter wheat planting weather looks good and conditions in Argentina and Australia are favorable. That Southern Hemisphere production is expected to add a significant amount to the growing global supply following larger crops in Canada, Europe, and Russia.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower for the first time in four sessions on Friday. There seemed little fresh news to offer price direction, leaving the market to follow the larger vegoil trend. Chicago soyoil futures declined on the day, as did European rapeseed futures and Malaysian palm oil. Weakness in the Canadian dollar offered some support.

The canola market also remained under harvest pressure, with Friday’s Alberta crop report noting good progress in the fields for farmers in that province over the past week. The harvest of major crops was reported at 77% complete as of last Tuesday, up 18 points from the previous week and well ahead of the five- and 10-year averages. Canola was 56% done.

Nov and Jan canola futures each lost $5 to settle at $614.60 and $627.70/tonne, respectively.

For today… canola futures are trading $4 to $6/tonne lower to start this morning. Nov canola futures are down $4.60 at $610.00/tonne, with the summer downtrend drawn off the June higher still firmly in place. Weaknesses in CBOT soybeans/soyoil and energy markets are also weighing on canola price action. EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures are also trending lower this morning.

Friday’s Commitment of traders report showed managed money traders had returned to the sell side…selling 7,672 contracts on the week to take them to 4,101 contracts net short.

The canola market remains pressured…both futures and cash basis…from an advancing Prairie harvest, improving production prospects and underlying worries over Chinese demand. China imposed tariffs on Canadian canola seed (76%) starting in August and canola oil/meal (100%) since March. China is projected to import less canola and import more canola meal from other countries, such as Russia and India.

Canadian canola exports were weak at only 52,300 tonnes shipped in the week ending on September 21. The crop year to date export total for canola at the end of week seven is 627,400 tonnes. This total is 1.05 MMT less than last year’s pace. Canola exports have been hampered by the lack of Chinese business.

Domestically…crushers are mostly full for Sept/Oct. They’re now chasing Nov/Dec targets.

Reminder…Canadian canola futures trade will be closed Tuesday (Sept 30) for National Truth and Reconciliation Day.

On the feed grains… The Prairie feed barley market continues to soften, dropping another $5/tonne on the week. October to December barley is currently landing in Lethbridge at approximately $255/tonne…but little is trading for nearby spot delivery. Imported US corn remains uncompetitive on price, arriving at a $30-$40/tonne premium over barley at Lethbridge. Despite the price advantage compared to US feed corn, it remains difficult finding buyers for October feed barley. As we head deeper into fall and approach winter, we anticipate increased buying activity from feeders as they begin to restock their feedlots.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/