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Feeder market eyes deferred live cattle futures

Profitability in the deferred positions has evaporated given the weakness seen in the deferred live cattle futures

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Published: September 22, 2025

Feeder cattle eating hay in a feedlot.

For the week ending Sept. 13, western Canadian feeder cattle markets were relatively unchanged compared to seven days earlier.

The April 2026 live cattle futures ended the week at $233, down $10 from the contract highs.

Nearby feedlot margins remain favourable, but profitability in the deferred positions has evaporated given the weakness in the deferred live cattle futures.

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Alberta packers were buying fed cattle on a dressed basis in the range of $525-$526 per cwt. delivered steady to $1 higher than last week. Using a 60 per cent grading, this equates to a range of $315-$316 per cwt. delivered.

U.S. packers were showing bids at C$320 per cwt. f.o.b. feedlot in southern Alberta. Current break-even pen closeouts in southern Alberta range for $286-$294 per cwt.

The Team Auction Market report had a package of 30 Black Angus steers with a mean weight of 1,000 pounds off grass with all ideal processing procedures valued at $465 per cwt. f.o.b. Strathmore auction yard deliverable Sept. 17.

This video sale also included a larger package of tan heifers averaging 1,000 lb. off grass near Consort Alta., with full processing data including implants priced at $448 per c.w.t. f.o.b. ranch for Sept. 18 pickup.

At the Perlich Bros Auction Market near Lethbridge, a smaller package of Black Angus yearling steers off grass weighing 892 lb. sold for $512 per cwt.

At the Lloydminster Auction Market, a seven pack of exotic heifers averaging 935 lb. off grass with full preconditioning traded for $474 per cwt. at the ring and their lighter sisters with a mean weight of 878 lb. were last bid at $483 per cwt. at the ring.

The Killarney sale report had a six pack of red and black grass fed yearling steers evaluated 800 lb. priced at $544 per cwt.

The Ponoka Auction Market report had a small package of mixed heifers off grass with full processing data (no-implants) weighing 820 lb. marked at $491 per cwt.

The Team Auction Market video sale had a larger package of black and red steers off cows and pasture with full pre-conditioning and age verified (no implants) scaled at 700 lb. valued at $576 per cwt. f.o.b. Ashern Auction Mart delivery on Oct. 20.

The Lloydminster Auction Market Report had a group of 24 tan steers averaging 604 lb. silencing the crowd at $661 per cwt. and their younger brothers weighing 559 lb. notching the board at $726 per cwt.

The Perlich Bros Auction Market report had a group of 11 Red Angus heifer calves averaging 575 lb. trading for $612 per cwt.

In the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, first quarter beef production for 2026 was raised by 100 million lb. from the August estimate. This weighed on the February and April live cattle futures.

Feedlot margins will remain in positive territory until January or February 2026.

From March through June 2026, it appears that feedlot margins will move into red ink by $100 to $200 per head. This will limit the upside in feeder cattle prices.

For the week ending Sept. 9, the Commitments of Traders Report had the commercial traders as net buyers of 2,425 contracts while the managed money was a net seller of 2,334 contracts. Commercial buying and managed money selling characterize a bearish sentiment or downward trending market. The futures market appears to be leading the cash trade.

About the author

Jerry Klassen - Analysis

Jerry Klassen - Analysis

Jerry Klassen graduated from the University of Alberta in 1996 with a degree in Agriculture Business. He has over 25 years of commodity trading and analytical experience working with various grain companies in all aspects of international grain merchandising. From 2010 through 2019, he was manager of Canadian operations for Swiss based trading company GAP SA Grains and Products ltd. Throughout his career, he has travelled to 37 countries and from 2017-2021, he was Chairman of the Canadian Grain and Oilseed Exporter Association. Jerry has a passion for farming; he owns land in Manitoba and Saskatchewan; the family farm/feedlot is in Southern Alberta. Since 2009, he has used the analytical skills to provide cattle and feed grain market analysis for feedlot operators in Alberta and Ontario. For speaking engagements or to subscribe to the Canadian Feedlot and Cattle Market Analysis, please contact him at 204 504 8339 or see the website www.resilcapital.com.

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