AM Market Report – September 22, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Oilseed and product markets were lower overnight and leading into this morning. ICE canola futures are falling $6 to $9/tonne lower this morning, after sinking just over $20/t last week as the summer slump continues.

Chicago soybeans are down 10 to 14 cents/bu this morning, with meal and soyoil also posting notable losses. Bean bulls remain disheartened by the lack of news and progress on trade coming out of Friday’s phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping…another meeting between the two and another disappointment for the soybean market. China, by far the world’s largest soy importer, has yet to book any of the current US soybean crop and has instead turned to South American supplies.

Soy bulls are fading fast as the bears hammered the bean market lower over the past four trading sessions. Meal futures are trending lower and the bleeding needs to stop in that market for soybean prices to recover.

CBOT corn futures are losing 2 to 3 cents this morning. Corn futures have been trending generally higher over the past 6 weeks, coming up from their August lows…but are down now for a third straight trading session. Dec and March corn futures declined 6 cents last week. Corn bulls need to show fresh buying power early this week to keep its fledgling uptrend alive.

US winter wheat futures markets are 2 to 5 cents lower this morning, but spring wheat futures are trading around a penny higher. The wheat bulls need to “eat their Wheaties” this week as prices continue to languish not far above their recent contract lows.

Canada crop update…chart below shows historical Canadian crop production of the country’s major field crops since 1990, per Statistics Canada; StatCan edged up 2025 canola and wheat production this month in particular, taking combined output of these six crops over the 90 MMT mark for the first time (if it holds). However, total production has edged up near that mark no less than four times since 2013. All-wheat production of 36.6 MMT would be the largest since 2013, with corn output of 15.5 MMT a third straight record high.

In other news… The Financial Times, citing US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, reported that the Trump administration is preparing plans to use tariff revenues to fund a new support program for American farmers. The proposal comes amid mounting pressure from higher input costs and reduced export demand tied to reciprocal tariffs. While details are still being finalized, the approach would mirror previous Trump trade-war era relief efforts that sought to offset tens of billions of dollars of lost farm income with government aid.

Ottawa…are you listening?

In Other News

– Canada, Mexico agree to deepen ties… In their meeting last week in Mexico City, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to deepen ties between their countries as they both adjust to the uncertainty of an erratic second Donald Trump presidency. Canada-Mexico relations date back just 80 years. But officials are looking to deepen those ties through what’s being called a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” They’ll look to develop more trade and security relationships, invest in infrastructure and work together on climate and conservation initiatives.

“We are beginning a new era of elevated co-operation,” Carney said during a news conference with Sheinbaum. “We are both undertaking massive transformations of our economy … our efforts will be strengthened by working together.”

Sheinbaum said she expects the agreements made between herself and Carney would bear fruit in the near term. “Mexico and Canada will continue walking together, with mutual respect and with a certainty that co-operation is the path to overcome any challenge,” she said.

The two leaders presented a united front, despite some Canadian politicians recently calling for Mexico to be excluded from the North American free trade deal. They rejected the idea that their relationship could hit a snag if one of them negotiated a better deal with the US. That will soon be tested, as all three parties prepare for the CUSMA review.

– China snaps up Australian canola after trade spat with Canada… Chinese state trading firm COFCO has bought up to nine 60,000 tonne cargoes of Australian canola after Beijing last month imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties on imports of the oilseed from traditional supplier Canada. The purchases amount to around 540,000 tonnes, equivalent to about 8% of China’s total canola imports last year. Beijing is conducting a bogus anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola seed, and in August imposed preliminary duties of 75.8%, bringing shipments to a virtual standstill amid a larger diplomatic and trade dispute between the two nations.

Canada had been China’s main supplier for the past several years, and the cargoes demonstrate China can find alternate sources of the oilseed as trade talks between Ottawa and Beijing drag on. Australia is a smaller producer than Canada, however, and may struggle to match the Canadian volumes. All shipments are scheduled to load between November and January.

China is the world’s biggest canola importer, taking in 6.4 MMT last year, almost all of it from Canada, according to Chinese customs data. Canada is the world’s biggest exporter of canola and Australia is the second-biggest.

– Survey says Canadians support canola producers over EV tariffs... A majority of Canadians are in favour of lowering tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles if it would help improve market access for Canadian canola, according to new data from the Angus Reid Institute. Of the 4,330 people surveyed, 57% said they’d cut tariffs to make a deal on canola, while 24% said they’d leave the duties as-is.

China imposed 75.8% tariffs on Canadian canola seed in August, adding to 100% tariffs on canola oil and meal and peas, and 25% tariffs on seafood and pork levied earlier this year. The tariffs are widely believed to be in retaliation for Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel and aluminum.

Regionally, the preference for reducing EV tariffs was highest in Saskatchewan at 68%, though a majority in all regions indicated they’d lower the duties.

– China still snubbing US soybeans... For the first time since at least the 1990s, China hasn’t bought any US soybeans at the start of the export season, according to a Bloomberg report, a sign that Beijing is once again using agriculture as leverage in its trade fight with Washington. “As the world’s top soybean buyer, China wields enormous influence over global markets. Now it’s reviving a familiar tactic of holding back on US purchases…deployed during the first trade war under President Donald Trump…as the two countries navigate a fragile truce,” said the report.

Data from USDA shows China hadn’t booked a single cargo of US soybeans as of Sept 11, almost two weeks into the new marketing season…the first time in records going back to 1999. Last year, the US made up a fifth of China’s soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and accounting for over half of total US soybean export value, Bloomberg said. China presently has hefty soybean stockpiles and is signaling it has the patience and capacity to wait…“and that it’s willing to use commodities as a bargaining chip in broader trade talks.”

– Russia harvests 84 MMT of wheat so far in 2025… Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, has harvested 84 MMT of wheat so far in 2025, RIA news agency reported, citing Russian Agriculture minister Oksana Lut. The ministry expects the total grain crop for the year to reach 135 MMT. With 114 MMT of grain already harvested, Lut said, the country was on track to meet the target.

IKAR consultancy forecast the 2025 wheat crop at 87 MMT and wheat exports at 44 MMT. SovEcon consultancy sees the wheat crop at the same level, saying it was helped by better-than-expected harvest in Siberia and the Urals.

Even as harvesting proceeds in line with expectations, Russian exports slowed sharply in year-on-year terms in August and September, with analysts pointing to low export prices as the main reason for the decline.

– Western Australia’s wheat, barley and canola harvest outlook improves again… Western Australia, the country’s biggest grains-exporting region, will produce 300,000 tonnes more wheat, 1.1 MMT more barley and 225,000 tonnes more canola this season than expected a month ago, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) monthly crop report. The upgraded forecasts underscore an improving picture for Australia’s overall grains output. Australia exports most of its harvest and large production would add to global supply at a time when benchmark prices have weakened.

“The outlook for the West Australian grain growing season has improved over the past month due to mild temperatures and regular rainfall,” the GIWA said. Frost and heat could still damage yields in the coming weeks, with many late crops that are particularly vulnerable, but if those hurdles are dodged, estimates could rise again. The state is now on track to produce 11.8 MMT of wheat, 7.1 MMT of barley (record) and 3.3 MMT of canola. The bulk of the harvest is gathered in November and December.

– IGC increases 2025/26 world wheat crop forecast… The International Grains Council has raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 8 MMT to 819 MMT. Wheat production estimates for several countries were raised, including Canada, which saw projected output revised up to 36.6 MMT from last month’s 35.2 MMT. Australia production was raised to 33.8 MMT from 30.5 MMT, while the crop in Russia…the world’s largest exporter…was bumped up to 85 MMT from 83.7 million in August. Global wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are now forecast at 270 MMT, up 6 MMT from last month and even with 2024-25.

The intergovernmental body’s monthly update trimmed its 2025/26 world corn (maize) crop outlook by 2 MMT to 1.297 billion tonnes, but still above the year-earlier crop of 1.237 billion. At 294 MMT, estimated global corn ending stocks are steady from August and up from 283 MMT in 2024-25.

The IGC sees 2025-26 world soybean output at 429 MMT this month, down 1 MMT from August, but still 1 MMT a year ago. Ending stocks, at 83 MMT, are down 2 MMT from last month and last year.

– USDA reports historic low August US marketings, cattle placements plummet… The USDA’s latest cattle on feed update reflects the historically tight US supply. Cattle placements during August were down 10% on the year at 1.78 million head as the southern US border remains closed to feeder cattle imports from Mexico due to concerns over the spread of New World screwworm.

Marketings were the lowest for August on record, dropping 14% to 1.571 million head because of tight ready numbers and more aggressive movement earlier in the year as producers tried to take advantage of record cash prices.

The total number of cattle on feed in the US on September 1st was 1% below a year ago at 11.08 million head.

The impact on cash, wholesale and futures prices in uncertain, with supply tightness largely factored in.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 172.85 points on Friday to settle at 46,315.27, while the S&P 500 finished up 32.40 points at 6,664.36. Early Monday, the December Dow Jones Futures are down 197 points.

Global stocks are searching for direction this morning with markets weighing the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path after an interest rate cut last week. Wall Street futures are in negative territory after major US markets closed higher Friday. TSX futures are pointed up after Canada’s main stock market notched another record high on Friday.

The December US Dollar Index is down 0.225 at 97.045. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.54 US cents.

November crude oil futures are down $0.72 at US $61.68/barrel. Oil prices were little changed to slightly weaker as concerns over Russia and the Middle East were countered by oversupply jitters.

“Reports over the weekend that Russia was threatening over the Polish border have provided traders with a timely reminder of the ongoing risks to European energy security from the northeast,” said Michael McCarthy, CEO of investment platform Moomoo Australia and New Zealand.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are gapping 10 to 14 cents/bu lower this morning, and in the midst of a notable four consecutive session plunge. Traders are continuing to express their disappointment by the lack of trade progress following Friday’s phone call between US President Trump and Xi of China. Nov beans are gapping 14.25 cents lower this morning at $10.11/bu after dropping 20.75 cents last week…trading back below all its key moving averages.

Soymeal futures are tumbling $3 to $4/ton this morning, with Oct meal down $4.70 last week. Soyoil futures are shedding another 64 to 82 points this morning, with Oct bean oil dropping 164 points last week. Not a good looking chart for bean oil breaking into 3 month lows.

Friday’s morning’s call between Trump and Xi has deflated soy momentum, as no mention of ag products or soybeans was offered. Another phone call will happen “soon” leaving ag analysts with little to chew on ahead of the APEC summit in South Korea in late October, where Trump and Xi plan to meet in person.

Traders are watching the US harvest and planting weather in South America. US harvest conditions are mostly favorable, but some areas could see rain delays in the coming days, while bean planting is just getting started in Brazil and still at least a week away in most of Argentina. CONAB is forecasting a 3.7% rise in planted area for Brazil with production seen at a new all-time record large 177.67 MMT.

Chicago corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents lower this morning. The corn market finished Friday’s session mixed within a penny of unchanged. Dec corn dropped 6 cents on the week.

Traders will watch note the US harvest pace in the USDA’s weekly crop progress report out after the close of trade later this afternoon. Persistent rainfall in the Midwest may delay harvest activity. Favorable rains are forecasted for Brazil and Argentina’s planting seasons.

US wheat markets are a bit of a mixed this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are up a penny, but the winter wheats are 2 to 5 cents weaker. The US wheat complex finished lower across the three markets on Friday…spring wheat futures posting 3 to 4 cent declines, with the Dec contract down 4.25 cents on the week.

US winter wheat planting continues, while North America’s spring wheat harvest moves nearer to completion. The USDA’s next round of US wheat production numbers is out Sept 30th. Globally, traders are monitoring what seems to be favourable crop development weather in Argentina and Australia, and the rising world supply following harvests in Canada, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat markets are trying to carve out some lows, but the bearish supply drum continues to beat in the background.

Sideways consolidation in spring wheat futures has persisted since the Sept 5 contract low, though recent price action has yet to suggest a big move in the making…either way. But seasonally, spring wheat tends to move higher around this time of year.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower on Friday with weakness in the Chicago soy complex continuing to overhang the market. CBOT soyoil has been under pressure due to worries about US biofuel production, while soybeans posted double-digit losses after a much-anticipated phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly made scant mention of agricultural trade. Trade tensions between the two countries means China is shunning purchases of American soybeans and instead sourcing from Brazil.

The ongoing Prairie harvest added to the pressure on canola.

November canola futures fell $5.30 on Friday to settle at $618.60/tonne, and January lost $4.90 to $631.50.

For today… canola futures remain in a slump…down $6 to $9/tonne this morning…a fourth consecutive loss and testing early month lows. Nov canola is down $9.70 this morning at $608.90/tonne after dropping $21.10/t last week. The downtrend drawn off the June higher remains very much intact.

Pressuring canola of late are reports from Reuters that China has already purchased 540,00 tonnes of canola from Australia for the Nov-Jan time frame…more than many thought probable in the first 3 months of commitments.

That’s also being reflected in the very slow Canadian canola export program to start the 2025-26 marketing year…CGC reported Friday that only 45,500 tonnes were shipped out for the week ended Sept 14 (Week 6), bringing the marketing year-to-date total to just 575,000 tonnes versus 1.447 MMT last year. Domestic use was able to maintain a record pace with 221,300 tonnes used on the week. Year to date domestic use at 1.370 MMT compared to 1.310 MMT last year. but there are reports the crushers are mostly full Sep/Oct, basis widening.

The increasingly bearish CBOT soy complex over the past week is pressuring our canola. Soyoil is a concern in particular as US government policy and commitment to biofuel production remains shaky as Big Oil and Big Ag complete on the small refinery exemption issue. The EPA seems to slow walking the new regulations on biofuels. EPA’s draft rule last week proposed two scenarios for reallocating waived volumes (2023–25): 50% or 100%. But they’re also accepting comments on “0%”…lots of legal uncertainty ahead. This impacts theoretically 2.18 billion gallons of US renewable fuels demand…feedstock outlook remains a moving target.

These decisions will impact the viability of Canadian canola oil for blending into US biodiesel.

With StatCan bumping canola production to 20 MMT last week, the Chinese tariff situation and the current uncertainty of US biofuel regulations, it seems that canola can’t buy a break.

Related outside markets…CBOT soy complex, EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures are all lower this morning.

Flax

Early harvest reports suggest the 2025 flax crop is yielding decently, with good quality. StatCan last week forecast a flax crop of 365,000 tonnes, the biggest crop since 2022. Prices have backed off their mid-summer levels but are basically hanging around $18/bu. When prices started to ease, about the start of July, American users, big buyers, slowed their purchases, typical buyer behavior during harvest season.

Feed Grains

The Prairie feed market remains soft after an upward revision in Canada’s barley crop estimate from StatCan last week to 8,228 MMT. Benchmark cash feed barley pricing at Lethbridge is trading at a notably discount to corn, with Nov/Dec delivery pricing around $265/tonne vs $286/tonne for corn. While this price gap has sparked some buyer interest, overall demand remains subdued, as many feeders anticipate further price declines near-term. Fob farm values in Saskatchewan are $4.10-$4.75/bu or $188-$218/t depending on location.

Once we get through the harvest, I suspect we’ll see prices start to stabilize, then hopefully see some appreciation.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/