AM Market Report – August 27, 2025

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $1 to $3/tonne lower so far this morning, feeling some spillover price pressure from a softening US soy complex. Chicago soybeans are down 3 to 4 cents/bu, with soyoil and meal also trending weaker. News a Chinese trade representative is traveling to Washington this week is giving some faint hope of calming US-China trade tensions. But bearish fundamentals continue to prevail over such speculative trade news.

Chicago corn futures are trickling 2 cents lower.

Corn and soybean bulls are trying to maintain fledgling near-term price uptrends on the daily bar charts. As US corn/soybean crops progress through their final growth stage, the prevailing market psychology is that the US has large crops. That keeps pressure on prices even when they try to break through chart overhead resistance levels. Until the bulls come in and put a stake in the ground…i.e., China buys US soybeans…the bears seem comfortable.

US wheat markets remain a dog…the winter wheats are losing 6 to 8 cents this morning…with HRW wheat pressing into fresh contract lows. Minnie spring wheat futures are down 2 to 4 cents, and not far up off recent contract lows. Ample near-term global supply keeps futures anchored.

In Other News

– Canada-US trade talks progressing… Canada-US Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc had a “constructive [and] lengthy” meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington on Tuesday, the minister’s office said, reports CBC News. The meeting comes as the two countries have yet to reach some sort of trade agreement since US President Donald Trump began his tariff campaign after returning to the White House in January.

A Canadian source told CBC news that Tuesday’s meeting between the two was meant to last an hour, but went for 90 minutes. The source said there was a sense of optimism on the Canadian side following the meeting.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced last Friday that Canada will drop retaliatory tariffs on some US products to match American tariff exemptions for goods covered under the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement on trade, called CUSMA. Canada’s counter-tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles will
remain.

Trump upped tariffs on Canadian non-CUSMA-compliant goods to 35% earlier this month. But the president has hit certain Canadian goods such as softwood lumber, steel, aluminum and some auto parts with further import levies, whether they fall under the trade agreement’s umbrella or not.

Marc-Andre Blanchard, the prime minister’s chief of staff, and Michael Sabia, the clerk of the Privy Council, are also in Washington with LeBlanc this week. LeBlanc has said the retaliatory tariffs were a major sticking
point in negotiations ahead of US President Trump’s decision to boost duties on Canada to 35% earlier this month.

– China still holding back on buying US soybeans… China, the world’s number-one soybean importer, doesn’t appear to have bought a single US cargo for the coming year, just days before the start of the new US marketing year (Sept 1), said Bloomberg today. China imposed retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans in March, making exports to China less price-competitive, and Chinese buyers are standing pat as the two governments negotiate an end to trade hostilities.

China’s soybean crushers have already purchased large quantities of Brazilian soybeans in the past few months, with more on the way. Arrivals in the next three months are expected at over 30 MMT, according to Chinese commodities consultancy Mysteel.

This decade, China has imported a total of between 90 and 105 MMT of soybeans a year. Brazil had around 37 MMT…or roughly 22% of its crop from last season still to sell as of Aug. 5, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado. However, China avoiding US soybeans is not risk-free. “Brazil can cover most of their needs, but seasonality makes it dangerous to rely only on South America,” said Kang Wei Cheang, an agricultural broker at StoneX Group Inc. in Singapore. “That’s why, even with politics in play, China usually comes back to US beans when Brazil’s window tightens.”

– July canola crush up from previous month… The Canadian canola crush accelerated in the final month of the 2024-25 marketing year, although the final total still fell slightly short of expectations. Statistics Canada pegged the July crush at 968,515 tonnes, up a hefty 13.1% from June’s 856,096, but still below 1.05 MMT in July last year.

The 2024-25 cumulative crush totaled 11.412 MMT, falling just short of the Agriculture Canada forecast of 11.5 MMT estimate, but still a new all-time record annual canola crush, and up 3.4% from 11.033 MMT in 2023-24.

Ag Canada is forecasting the crush to rise further in the 2025-25 crop year, up to 11.8 MMT, based on expanding domestic crush capacity and rising demand, especially from the biofuel sector.

– AgCan raise dry pea, lentil production numbers… Agriculture Canada raised its 2025 production calls for Canadian dry peas and lentils from its July report. In AgCan’s latest monthly report, they also adjusted estimates for exports, domestic usage and ending stocks.

These revisions to Canada’s two main pulse crops came ahead of the Statistics Canada crop production report scheduled for Aug 28. Both federal agencies use satellite imagery and models to reach their forecasts.

AgCan added 300,000 tonnes to its August projection for Canada’s dry peas, bringing it to 3.50 MMT, also up 503,000 tonnes above the 2024 crop…based on both increased harvested area and yields.

Dry pea exports were nudged up by 100,000 tonnes to now 2.10 MMT, but that’s a little short of 2.20 MMT in 2024/25…though still surprisingly strong considered out top export market…China…levied 100% tariffs on imports of Canadian peas. Meanwhile, domestic usage for 2025/26 remains at July’s call of 670,000 tonnes, which would be 58,000 tonnes more than last year.

That led AgCan to raise its call on ending stocks, which dry peas now at 1.275 MMT versus 975,000 tonnes last month. Either way, that’s much larger than the 2024/25 carryover of 525,000 tonnes.

Lentils saw more muted changes from AgCan. Production for this year was raised by 150,000 tonnes at 2.60 MMT. They held their estimate lentil export program at 2.10 MMT, 200,000 more than in 2024/25. Domestic use remained at 300,000 tonnes, trimmed back from 316,000 a year ago.

AgCan estimated ending stocks were increased to 780,000 tonnes from 530,000 forecast in July. The latest figure is significantly higher than 505,000 tonnes held over for 2024/25.

– US industry says SRE reallocation is a must… The US Environmental Protection Agency issued decisions on 175 small refinery exemptions last week that had lingered for years. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, said the more than 140 granted exemptions don’t give farmers and biofuel producers the certainty that they need. “It’s imperative that EPA reallocates each and every exempt gallon in a forthcoming rule,” said Skor.

While the US Renewable Fuels Association says it doubts the refineries were truly experiencing “disproportionate economic hardship due to the RFS, President Geoff Cooper said, “We are pleased to see EPA taking an approach to implementation of these exemptions that’s minimally disruptive to the marketplace.”

Clean Fuels Alliance America said EPA’s course correction on exemptions creates fresh uncertainty for America’s farmers and biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF producers. Devin Mogler, President and CEO of the US National Oilseed Processors Association, said his group urges EPA to finalize a reallocation policy that fully accounts for the lost gallons.

– Russian government commission backs 10% duty on flax exports… A Russian government commission has approved the introduction of a 10% duty on flax exports, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. A final decision will be made by the government, the sources added. Russia is a large exporter of flax to the global market.

– India, US to lose from Trump tariffs… The United States imposed tariffs of up to 50% on imports of goods from India on Wednesday in a move that is a textbook example of a lose-lose situation for both countries, but perversely is a win for the intended target, Russia. The additional 25% tariff on top of an existing 25% levy on Indian goods imposed by US President Donald Trump is ostensibly because India keeps buying Russian crude oil. The severe tariffs, among the highest Trump has imposed on imports from any country, are unlikely to deliver what he wants, and may actually make New Delhi more determined to keep buying Russian oil.

India has increasingly turned to Russian crude after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine led Western buyers to end purchases, with Russian oil rising to about 40% of India’s imports. That reliance has helped hold crude prices lower by keeping Russian oil on the global market, which would have been much tighter from a supply perspective if Moscow had been unable to sell its crude. In turn India’s refiners have also benefited as they have been able to source Russian crude at prices lower than competing grades from other suppliers in the Middle East and Africa.

India sees Trump’s actions as inconsistent, because the US leader seems happy for China to keep buying Russian oil. That is perhaps a sign that Beijing has greater leverage over its trade relationship with the United States, stemming from its dominance in production of refined critical metals and rare earths.

– US Commerce Department affirms anti-dumping duties against 10 countries…The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative determinations of anti-dumping and countervailing duties against 10 countries on Tuesday after investigations into corrosion-resistant steel products. The determinations cover $2.9 billion in imports from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam, the Commerce Department said in a statement. “Commerce made its final determinations that imports of CORE into the United States from ten trading partners were being dumped and/or subsidized,” the department said.

Corrosion-resistant steel is used to build automobiles, appliances and buildings. “�American steel companies and workers deserve to compete on a level playing field,” Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade William Kimmitt said in a statement.

The International Trade Commission will now make its own determination of injury to the US domestic steel industry. “If the ITC makes an affirmative, trading partner-specific injury determination, Commerce will issue AD and CVD orders,” the Commerce Department said.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 135.60 points higher on Tuesday settling at 45,418.07, while the S&P 500 ended up 26.62 points at 6,465.94. Early Wednesday, the September Dow Jones Futures are up a modest 30 points.

Global stock markets are mixed this morning as investors braced for hotly anticipated, tone-setting results from AI chipmaker Nvidia Corp. Canada’s TSX stock futures are up slightly, while European and Asian markets are mixed.

Markets are watching earnings from bell-weather chip giant Nvidia Corp. and cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Data showed options traders are pricing in about a US $260-billion swing in Nvidia’s market value after the firm reports earnings today, where its business in China will be watched after an unusual profit-sharing deal with the Trump administration.

Caught in the crossfire of a Sino-US trade war, the fate of Nvidia’s China business hangs on where the world’s two largest economies land on tariff talks and chip trade curbs. “Nvidia now accounts for about 8% of the S&P 500 and is the flagship of the AI theme, so its results…or the market’s reaction to them…could be market-moving, even trend-reversing,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “Margins could benefit from recent export ban exemptions granted by the Trump administration. But the China story remains uncertain: Beijing is now pressuring domestic firms to buy local chips, which could erode Nvidia’s Chinese revenue share.”

Also newsworthy…concerns about US central bank independence are swirling this week after US Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, whose firing by President Donald Trump was ordered on Monday, said she would file a lawsuit against his move. Its unclear Trump has the authority to remove Fed governors.

The September US Dollar Index is up 0.383 at 98.505. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.29 US cents.

October crude oil futures are up $0.22 at US $63.47/barrel. Oil prices steadied as investors watched for developments in the Ukraine war and weighed an industry report that showed a drop in US crude inventories.

Oil found support from the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly supply report, which market sources said showed US crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week. Official inventory data is out later today.

Also interesting…Russia has revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August from the initial schedule after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations and freed up more crude for shipment. Export planning remains uncertain, however, due to ongoing strikes and shifting repair schedules, so delays and volume revisions are likely. Attacks are ongoing and repair deadlines change daily. It’s unclear how much Russia can load this month or next.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents/bu lower to start this morning. Bean futures closed Tuesday’s session with some slight turnaround action, as contracts were up 1 to 3 cents. Soymeal futures down mostly $2/ton this morning, giving back yesterday’s gains. Soyoil futures are 32 to 43 points lower after falling a further 78 to 155 points on Tuesday.

Nov beans are down 4 cents this morning at $10.45/bu…still nearer the upper of an extended sideways trading range going back to the start of 2025. But the US national average cash basis for soybeans was 1 cent weaker at 70 cents under the Nov contract…with a horrible basis of $1.50/bu under at delivery points in neighbouring North Dakota…reflective of non-existent US bean export sales off the PNW to China.

Traders are hopeful that news a Chinese trade official heading to D.C. this week for meetings with US trade reps will lead eventually to a more constructive trade understanding. But this does not seem to be a round of formal negotiations.

Weather remains a key focus for the US soybean crop. The US crop rating is the highest in five years, with development right on schedule. Still, the crop will need some rain to finish, and near-term forecasts continue to look mostly dry in some areas.

Chicago corn futures are 2 cents lower this morning. The corn market fell back on Tuesday with contracts down 1 to 3 cents across most nearbys.

USDA currently rates 71% of the US corn crop in good to excellent condition, the highest rating for this time of year in about a decade, with development rates close to normal. The trade is expecting a massive crop. The question right now is just how big, with the solid demand being at least partially overshadowed by this looming supply.

Technically, Dec corn is down 2.75 cents this morning at $4.07/bu, with its 20-day moving average ($4.06) serving as immediate chart support. If the market maintains that level, the next upside target would be testing the 50-day resistance ($4.16).

US wheat markets are weaker this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are down 2 to 4 cents, while HRW/SRW markets are losing 5 to 7 cents. On Tuesday, the US wheat complex posted some mixed trade across the three exchanges, with the Chicago market (SRW) was the strongest of the three…up 2 to 3 cents on the day. HRW futures closed 3 to 4 cents lower yesterday, while spring wheat futures saw 2 to 5 cent losses at the close.

Fundamentally, the world is faring well with wheat production and harvest activity. North America’s spring wheat harvest has ramped up…passing the halfway point south of the border and now getting going here in Western Canada.

There’s more rain in the near-term forecast for US hard red winter growing areas of the southern Plains ahead of winter wheat planting, pressuring Kansas City, but forecasts for US soft red winter region are generally dry, supporting Chicago.

Traders are also watching the late harvest activity in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, in addition to favorable crop development conditions in Argentina and Australia. IKAR now has Russia’s wheat crop at 86 MMT, with exports of 43 MMT, both up 500,000 tonnes from their prior projections.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures fell for the second day on Tuesday, pressured by steep losses in Chicago soyoil. Soybeans managed small gains on the day, supported in part by reports that a top Chinese trade negotiator would be in the US later this week…providing some hope for eventual China export business for US beans. However, soyoil was weighed down by continued strong US soybean production prospects.

Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed were lower as well, further undermining canola.

November fell $4.60 yesterday to settle at $654.80/tonne, and January lost $4.60 to $666.90.

For today… canola futures are trading another $1 to $3/tonne this morning, down a third consecutive session. Nov canola futures are $1.50 lower right now at $653.30/tonne, testing near key chart support at its 200-day moving average ($649). A break below that level would surely inspire further spec fund selling pressure.

Traders await tomorrow’s Statistics Canada model-based yield estimates of 2025 Canadian crop production (7:30 am CT release). That comes after Agriculture Canada recently updated its canola production estimate…a dramatic 2.3 MMT increase in projected 2025 canola production to 20.1 MMT thanks to an average yield increase from 37.1 bu/acre to 41.9 bu/acre nationally.

This week’s turn lower in CBOT soyoil and technical-based selling, combined with improved Prairie harvest weather, has pressured canola prices.

CBOT soybeans are slightly weaker this morning, while EU rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures are ever so slightly higher.

Palm oil is supported by a weaker ringgit and stronger export outlook, with cargo surveyor data showing shipments of Malaysian palm oil products rose 10.9%-16.4% during August 1-25 from the same period a month earlier. Also lifting sentiment were signs of festive-led demand in India ahead of Diwali in mid-October, news that Indonesia may secure a US tariff exemption deal on commodities including palm oil, and Malaysia’s contingency plans to safeguard exports under EU deforestation rules.

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/