While the prairie oil and gas industry has been in an uproar this autumn over the possibility of federal carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, prairie farmers are being warned of potential repercussions.
Failure to control greenhouse gases could be catastrophic for prairie agriculture, according to an Environment Canada study on the possible prairie impact of global warming and climate change.
Its authors present an unsettling prospect.
Drought could become 13 times more likely to occur, crop yields would fall, irrigation farming would become all but impossible and overall farm income could drop, says a report by Allen Tyrchniewicz of the International Institute for Sustainable Development in Winnipeg and Quentin Chiotti of the University of Toronto.
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“The scenarios for the prairie region all show an increase in temperature and reductions in soil moisture with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide,” they write.
There would be a longer growing season and more opportunity for new heat-dependent crops like corn and soybean on the prairies, less risk of frost damage and an extension of the growing area north into thinner and less-productive soils.
More land for feed grain
The livestock industry also could benefit because acreage now devoted to grains could be reduced to pasture land, increasing feed available.
However, the authors suggest the overall outlook for the prairie grain area would be negative, based on a review of the literature on the possible impact of global warming.
“Droughts could become more frequent and severe as a result,” they write. “The loss of soil organic matter compounded by drier conditions will also lead to an increase in dust storms.”
While researchers and farmers will be able to adjust to gradually changing conditions through different farming practices, water conservation techniques and drought-resistant crops, the warmer temperatures also will foster pests.
“A temperature rise extends the growing season and the farmable area, it causes earlier maturity of grain and opens up for the growing of new crops,” they write. “While the temperature rise is beneficial to the crops, the extra heat also affects weeds.”
And that spells danger for future yields.
“Weeds, pests and insects tend to get better living conditions under higher temperatures,” the report authors say. “To further increase the risks of a good crop, there is also the potential for poor herbicide performance.”
The federal report complains that even though agriculture stands to lose a lot from climate warming, the sector has been viewed by others as a contributor to the problem.
