ICE Canada Morning Comment: Chicago soy pulling down canola

By Glen Hallick

Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures remained trending downward on Tuesday morning, hitting fresh contract lows as bearish technical signals and weakness in the Chicago soy complex weighed on prices.

Yesterday’s supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture forecast a record soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre with production to be approximately 4.6 billion bushels.

Also, the USDA kept its estimates on Canada’s 2024/25 canola production at 20 million tonnes.

Additional pressure on canola was coming from declines in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Small losses in crude oil weighed on the oilseeds.

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A simmering labour dispute at Canada’s two major railways continued to loom over the Prairie grain harvest. Canadian Pacific Kansas City has indicated it will lockout the members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference effective Aug. 22 unless a new deal is reached. Canadian National stated it might follow the same path. Meanwhile, the union said it’s preparing for a strike or a lockout.

The Canadian dollar was virtually unchanged Tuesday morning with the loonie at 72.82 U.S. cents.

Approximately 20,750 contracts had traded by 8:41 CDT and prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne were:

                          Price      Change

Canola            Nov     575.10     dn 12.00             

                  Jan     586.30     dn 10.60

                  Mar     594.80     dn 10.20

                  May     600.10     dn 10.50

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