This cattle market information is selected from the weekly report from Canfax, a division of the Canadian Cattle Association. More market information, analysis and statistics are available by becoming a Canfax subscriber by calling 403-275-5110 or at www.canfax.ca.
Spring rally continues
Alberta fed prices continued their spring rally. Last week, fed steers and heifers traded at $256.49 and $254.40 per hundredweight, respectively, establishing a new record high for the second week in a row.
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Since the start of the year, fed steers have rallied by $31.72 per cwt., compared to $37.22 per cwt. during the same period last year, a difference of $5.50 per cwt. Similarly, fed heifers have rallied $38.08 per cwt. year to date compared to $39.99 per cwt. last year, a modest $1.91 per cwt. difference.
The slow start in January and February had a bigger impact on steers than heifers. Dressed sales last week were $8.50-$13 per cwt. higher than the previous week at $425-$432 per cwt. delivered.
The Alberta cash-to-futures basis has been at a premium for two weeks and was $2.81 per cwt. stronger at $7.33 per cwt. last week. The last time it happened during that week was three years ago, and it’s now at a $4.77 per cwt. premium compared to the 10-year average.
Dressed sales in Ontario were reported at $400 per cwt. delivered. Dressed prices have been trading steady since the second half of February.
In the United States, live trade for steers and heifers in Nebraska were reported at US$183 per cwt., down $1-$1.25 per cwt. from the previous week. Dressed steers traded at $292 per cwt., -$2 lower than the previous week.
In Kansas, live trade for steers and heifers were reported at $182 per cwt., steady with the previous week. For the week ending April 6, U.S. steer carcass weights were 919 pounds, down five lb. from two weeks prior but remain 27 lb. above last year.
Weekly U.S. slaughter stands at 614,045 head, rebounding close to last year’s levels.
Red-hot cows
Some auction markets have described the butcher cow market as “red hot,” “on fire” or “defying gravity.” Butcher cow prices have advanced $14 per cwt. over the past month, setting new record highs last week. D2s averaged $179.81 and D3s averaged $162.29 per cwt.
Cow volumes through commercial auction facilities are rather light, but there was a significant increase in butcher bull numbers. Butcher bulls averaged $191.26 per cwt. Semen test culls are likely coming to town. Top-end bulls are fetching more than $210 per cwt. with some bigger bulls netting well over $4,000 per head.
Cow volumes have been light, but with record high prices, some producers are hauling their later calving cows and selling them on the slaughter market. Year to date, western Canadian cow slaughter is five per cent lower than last year. Despite year over year declines, cow slaughter volumes are seven per cent larger than 2022 and 10 per cent larger than 2021.
With lower non-fed production compared to last year, some domestic shortfall has been offset with larger beef imports. For the first two months of this year, Canadian beef imports from Australia (+122 per cent), Uruguay (+46 per cent), Brazil (+29 per cent) and New Zealand (+27 per cent) are all above last year.
Heifer price declines
Over the past month, the largest price decline has been on lightweight heifer calves, with prices declining $15-$19 per cwt. This is a counter-seasonal move because heifer calf prices usually strengthen throughout April.
Alberta 850 lb. steers have trended sideways, averaging in the low to mid $320s per cwt. for the past nine weeks. Alberta 850 lb. feeder prices are within $9 per cwt. of record highs set in September 2023.
Last week, there were a few 800 lb. and heavier steers offered for May delivery, and prices are sitting roughly six per cent higher compared to the spot market.
In the calf market, over the past 10 years, the average decline from first half of the year highs to second half of the year lows stands at 14 per cent. Assuming calf prices have put in their highs, using a historical decline of 14 per cent would put Alberta 550 lb. steers on track to bottom in the upper $370s per cwt., potentially bringing calf prices back to January lows.
Calf prices are not expected to see an historical decline of 14 per cent. A more realistic fall calf low is in the $390 per cwt. area.
For February, Canadian imports of U.S. feeder cattle totalled slightly more than 43,000 head, the third largest import volume on record.
Cut-out price slips
In U.S. beef trade, Choice cutouts ended the week down one per cent to US$295.80 per cwt. Select slipped lower, softening two per cent to $289.27 per cwt.
