December was a warm month. After the early shot of wintery weather in some parts of the Prairies in late October, many of us expected a nasty cold winter. That has not materialized.
What I like best about the winter so far is that, technically, it is more than two-fifths over. Heck, in a couple of weeks it will be half over. So even if the rest of the winter turns nasty, it won’t seem like winter is lasting forever.
Looking at the mean monthly temperatures for December, they were remarkably warm right across the Prairies. In Alberta, temperatures ranged from a crazy 0.5 C mean monthly average in Calgary to what is an equally crazy -5.7 C mean in Peace River. At most locations across Alberta, the mean monthly temperatures were about 7 C above the long-term average.
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It was much the same story in Manitoba, with mean monthly temperatures ranging from -5.8 C in Winnipeg and Dauphin to -7.1 C in Brandon. Like Alberta, these were about 7 C warmer than average.
Saskatchewan was the warm spot. Saskatoon and Regina both reported mean temperatures of about -4.2 C, which was 8 to 9 C warmer than average.
Precipitation in December was light with the exceptions of Calgary and Dauphin.
Looking back at December forecasts, the winner looks to be … drumroll please … my forecast! I was the only one to go with above average temperatures and below average precipitation.
Now to the latest outlooks. Both almanacs call for below average temperatures and above average precipitation over the next two months. NOAA’s latest three-month outlook calls for above average temperatures and below average precipitation.
The CFS model’s three-month forecast calls for above average temperatures with a short cold snap in mid-January, along with below average precipitation except for parts of southern Alberta, which could see above average amounts in January.
The CanSIPS model predicts above average temperatures with a short cold period in January along with near to below average precipitation. The ECMWF predicts above average temperatures over the next three months with near to below average precipitation, possibly transitioning into near to above average near the end of winter.
Finally, my best guess. I am going with the CFS and CanSIPS models and call for a warmer than average end to the winter with a short cold snap in mid-January, along with near to below average precipitation.
Here is the super-condensed version of Environment Canada’s top weather stories of 2023.
Number one and two on the list was the record year for wildfires and smoke right across Canada. It was not the number of fires but their range across nearly every province and territory and the amount of land consumed that made it an unusual year.
Environment Canada’s number three story was the hottest summer on Earth and in Canada as well. Canada recorded its warmest summer since the start of national record keeping in 1948.
For those of us across the Prairies, the summer of 2023 will be remembered by the record-breaking heat in June, which saw temperatures more like July.
The final weather story of 2023 was dry conditions over Western Canada. Lethbridge and Winnipeg, in February to May, recorded the lowest amount of precipitation in at least the last 100 years. These dry conditions continued through most of the summer, with the exception of the Edmonton region, which had heavy rains in late June.
