If I was asked to assign a grade to the year that was, 2022 would likely be a C, possibly a C-. There were a few bright spots, but for the most part, the year was dominated by demoralizing news.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rampant inflation, soaring fuel prices, constant food price increases and the continued effects from the COVID pandemic are but a smattering of things that could have resulted in 2022 receiving a failing grade.
However, a few things pulled a potential failing grade up to a C. Much of the Canadian Prairies escaped the drought that existed in 2021, resulting in better crop yields and livestock feed and pastures.
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University classes returned to in-person for faculty and students, offering vastly improved education. As well, we are once again able to travel to see family and friends or to take that long put-off holiday.
For myself, a highlight from the past year was the May announcement by Health Canada that the use of genome-editing technologies wouldn’t be treated as plants with novel traits, thereby reducing the regulatory burden on this innovative plant breeding technology. Or at least, let’s hope so!
As far as the upcoming year goes, predictions of the future are notable for their epic failure.
In 1876, a Western Union official observed: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication (and) is inherently of no value to us.”
In 1903, a British member of Parliament stated: “I do not believe the introduction of motor cars will ever affect the riding of horses.”
In 1957, an executive editor at Prentice-Hall confidently affirmed: “I have talked with the best people and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.”
Speculation is folly for the foolish.
Yet, some insights for the year ahead, based on the evidence of the past 12 months, seem more likely.
Higher food prices should be expected for much of the coming year. The key factors driving up food prices — the war in Ukraine, rising labour costs, stubbornly high inflation and high fuel costs — are not anticipated to ease. While fuel prices have declined from their summer peaks, they’re still 40 percent higher than one year ago.
Despite multiple interest rate increases, inflation remains stubbornly high and as employee salary raises kick in, gaining control over inflation is going to be considerably more difficult than many central bankers anticipate.
Another concerning aspect is the continued preference by too many politicians to base climate change policy directives on public-pleasing figures, rather than on empirical evidence.
For example, the European Union’s Field to Fork Strategy calls for several evidence-lacking measures, including a 50 percent reduction in pesticide use, a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use, a 50 percent reduction in sales of antimicrobials used for farm animals and increasing organic farming to 25 percent of Europe’s agricultural land.
Canada has announced a 30 percent emission reduction target for fertilizer use, which similarly lacks any empirical references.
I’m a strong supporter of policy being based on empirical evidence, not political or public perceptions.
Undoubtedly, there will be other obstacles that arise in the coming 12 months that serve to frustrate and challenge us. Similarly, there will be spots that occur that bring smiles to our faces.
Stuart Smyth is an associate professor in the University of Saskatchewan’s department of agricultural and resource economics. This article first appeared on the SaiFood website. It has been edited for length.
