By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Dec 9 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures closed lower on Friday after a very volatile session.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprisingly didn’t accept Statistics Canada’s latest estimate on 2022 canola production of 18.17 million tonnes. Rather the USDA pegged Canadian output at 19 million tonnes, down from November’s 19.5 million. However, the USDA accepted the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economic Sciences’ (ABRES) estimate of 7.3 million tonnes of canola ‘down under’ in 2022/23.
Also in the USDA report, world rapeseed production was trimmed 0.6 per cent at 84.34 million tonnes. Total global oilseed output was cut 6.7 per cent at 644.4 million tonnes.
Read Also
Canadian Financial Close: More losses for loonie
By Glen Hallick Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm – The Canadian dollar slipped below 72 U.S. cents on Thursday, as…
Pressure on canola came from losses in European rapeseed, Chicago soybeans and especially soyoil. Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soymeal ended the day higher.
Global crude priced remained volatile on Friday, bouncing back forth either side of unchanged. They were currently mixed, providing little direction to vegetable oils.
Despite a small decline in canola export for the week ended Dec. 4, the Canadian Grain Commission reported the year-to-date exports of 2.88 million tonnes remains well above those from this time last year.
The Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon Friday, with the loonie at 73.39 U.S. cents, compared to Thursday’s close of 73.63.
There were 41,336 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 41,117 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 30,634 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jan 872.40 dn 2.80
Mar 860.90 dn 0.20
May 858.90 dn 2.40
Jul 858.90 dn 2.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly lower on Friday, following the release of the December supply and demand estimates .
The USDA kept all of its projections from November for U.S. soybeans in 2022/23. Soybean production stayed at 4.35 billion bushels, exports were held at 2.05 billion and ending stocks were still 220 million.
The USDA’s global estimates bumped up soybean production to 391.17 million tonnes. The department didn’t change its output calls for Brazil or Argentina, at 152.0 million tonnes and 49.5 million tonnes respectively. The world carryover inched up to 102.71 million tonnes.
CORN futures were slightly higher on Friday, due to small changes to U.S. and global ending stocks.
The USDA held domestic corn output at 13.93 billion bushels, but trimmed exports to 2.08 billion, which reduced ending stocks a little to 14.1 billion.
The department cut global corn production by 6.53 million tonnes at 1.16 billion, based on reduction for Russia at 14.0 million tonnes and Ukraine at 27.0 million. Also of note, production for Brazil and Argentina remained at 126.0 million and 55.0 million tonnes respectively. World ending stocks were eased back to 298.40 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were weaker on Friday, despite very few changes in the USDA report.
The department froze homegrown wheat production at 1.65 billion bushels as well as exports at 775 million and the carryout at 571 million.
The USDA lowered world wheat production to 780.59 million tonnes. That included production cuts for Argentina at 12.5 million tonnes and Canada at 33.82 million. Global ending stocks slip to 267.33 million tonnes.
The U.S. Drought Monitor said that 78.5 per cent of the country was abnormally dry to being in severe drought.
France reported that its 2023/24 winter wheat is 97 per cent good to excellent for the week ended Dec. 5. Also, France’s winter barley was also at 97 per cent and its winter durum was at 98 per cent.
The Rosario Grain Exchange forecast Argentina’s 2022/23 wheat crop at 11.8 million tonnes. That’s well below the exchange’s original estimate of 19.0 million tonnes. Drought levels in the Argentina are said to be worse than those in 2008/09. Without a dramatic change in the weather the likelihood of further reductions remained very strong.
