By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 10 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) canola futures mixed on Tuesday, with a loss in the old crop July and gains in the new crop positions. Trading in that July contract accounted for about two-thirds of today’s activity.
A trader said it’s likely there was a great deal of spreading, spurred on by either crushers or the specs. He believed they were selling their nearby July contracts for Chicago soyoil.
That said there were healthy gains in soyoil, along with increases in soybeans. However soymeal stepped back a little. Additional support came from higher European rapeseed, while losses in Malaysian palm oil applied some pressure. A downturn in global crude oil prices weighed on edible oil values.
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The trader stated the delay to spring planting on the eastern Prairies due to wet conditions isn’t a major concern right now, given it’s still rather early. However more rain is in the forecast this week for much of the Prairies, bringing some much needed moisture to the dry western half.
In the face of a stronger United States dollar, the Canadian dollar was lower at mid-afternoon. The loonie slipped back to 76.78 U.S. cents, compared to Monday’s close of 77.14.
There were 18,639 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 10,168 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,478 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Jul 1,135.50 dn 21.40
Nov 1,076.60 up 2.90
Jan 1,079.80 up 3.50
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were higher on Tuesday, as planting progress was lagging behind.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its crop progress report yesterday, showing soybeans planted at 12 per cent complete as of May 6. That’s up eight points from the previous week, but only half of the five-year average.
On Thursday the USDA is scheduled to release its monthly supply and demand estimates at 11 am CDT. The trade projected the 2022/23 carryover for soybeans at 8.63 million tonnes.
China soybean imports in April were a record high of 8.1 million tonnes, putting the country on pace to take in 95.5 million tonnes this year.
Safras and Mercado cut their estimate of the current Brazil soybean harvest by 2.2 per cent at 122.3 million tonnes.
France said it’s expecting a 13 per cent jump in planted oilseed acres in 2022/23 at 5.24 million, due to rising fuel and biofuel prices.
CORN futures were higher on Tuesday, getting support from soybeans.
The USDA estimated corn planted at 22 per cent finished, up eight points from last week, but very far behind the five-year average of 50 per cent done.
Market expectations placed U.S. corn ending stocks for 2022/23 at 34.34 million tonnes.
AgRural chopped 4.3 per cent off of its estimate of the Brazil corn harvest, and has now called for 112.3 million tonnes. In comparison, Safras and Mercado trimmed its forecast by 0.03 per cent at 118.13 million tonnes, while IHS Markit cut its estimate by 2.5 per cent at 115 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures were steady to higher on Tuesday, because of the slow pace of planting in North Dakota and Minnesota and the dry conditions on the Southern Plains.
Despite spring wheat planted rising eight points on the week to 27 per cent complete, there’s a tremendous disparity among the six states. North Dakota and Minnesota were at eight and two per cent finished respectively, while the other four states were 50 to 86 per cent done. The national five-year average is 47 per cent in the ground.
At 29 per cent good to excellent, U.S. winter wheat improved two points from the previous week.
The trade has predicted total U.S. wheat production for 2022/23 at 33.72 million tonnes of winter wheat, 18.64 million tonnes of hard red wheat, plus 9.77 million tonnes of soft red wheat.
Ukraine’s demand to be to allowed export grain out of the blockaded port city of Odesa was met with Russian missile strikes.
Pakistan announced its plan to increase its strategic wheat reserves by three million tonnes. In 2021/22, the country imported approximately 26.8 million tonnes of wheat.
