WINNIPEG – Despite a late start and what could be a mad dash to the finish, western Canadian farmers should put the largest crop ever in the bin.
The Canadian Wheat Board told the grain industry at a briefing last week the total production for the six major grains should be around 52.77 million tonnes.
Last month, Statistics Canada pegged the crop at 54.75 million tonnes, reflecting conditions July 31.
But Paul Bullock, director of weather and crop surveillance, said the warmer-than-normal temperatures of August sacrificed yields for crop maturity, “which maybe wasn’t such a bad trade-off.”
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Bullock said the record production is due more to seeded acreage than yields. August heat was especially important for durum in the region south and east of Regina. He toured the area in mid-August and couldn’t do seed counts in some fields because seeds hadn’t set yet.
Durum is the only cereal to buck the higher production trend this year. While acreage should be similar to last year, the wheat board and Statistics Canada estimate yields will be 7.7 percent lower, resulting in production of 4.36 million tonnes.
Clock is ticking
“Despite what happened in August there’s still a big concern there,” Bullock said. “We were concerned about the lateness and we were concerned about what we were seeing in the field as well.”
The main durum-growing area in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan was dry, affecting yield. However, Bullock said protein levels should be higher than they were last year.
Based on harvest reports as of Sept. 9, quality of early harvested grain looks good.
“We’re running into the usual array of discounting factors that you might normally expect but so far nothing traumatic, nothing to make headlines.”
No one knows
He said it’s difficult to predict the quality of the rest of the crop but it is possible about two-thirds of the wheat could grade No. 1 and No. 2, similar to last year’s crop. “But that’s in the hands of God.”
Frost to date in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan have caused some damage, he said, but it is hard to judge the impact.
“There are fields that are vulnerable and there will be some damage from it, but since we’re kind of in the midst of harvest, it’s very difficult to quantify.
“Hopefully enough of the crop was mature enough to avoid severe damage, but we know there will be some.”
Disease hasn’t been an issue. While fusarium was detected before harvest in much of Manitoba, early samples are showing less than two percent, or none at all.
“With the dry finish to the year, a lot of the fusarium that was in the wheat is lighter weight and is basically being lost out the back of the combines simply because of the difference between it and the non-affected kernels,” Bullock said.
However, ergot has been more of a problem, both in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Wheat midge was also present in almost every field Bullock surveyed in northeastern and east-central Saskatchewan. However, he said he doesn’t expect it to significantly affect grades.
