The future of Canadian wheat sales to the United States could hinge in part on internal staffing issues at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
The ITC will vote in early October on whether imports of Canadian spring wheat and durum now or in the future could injure the U.S. wheat industry.
If the answer is yes, then the prohibitive tariffs recently imposed by the U.S. department of commerce will remain in place, effectively shutting Canada out of the sizable and lucrative market south of the border.
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But the outcome of the vote could be determined in large part by how many of the ITC’s six commissioners vote.
Under commission rules, a tie vote would give victory to the Americans. As of last week, one recently appointed commissioner had not yet been sworn in, meaning that only five are eligible to cast a ballot.
Complicating matters further, only four commissioners attended the ITC hearing of the case Sept. 4. The commissioner who did not attend was sworn in one week before the hearing.
As this week began it was unclear whether four, five or six commissioners would vote, and the wheat board is watching closely.
“It’s highly significant how many of them vote,” said Rick Steinke, the board’s marketing manager for North America. “If you have four, five or six, you get different scenarios.”
If four or five vote, the board will need three votes to win in either case. If six vote, it will need four votes.
In the ITC’s preliminary consideration of the complaint, one commissioner voted to throw the case out then and there, which Steinke described as “very unusual” and positive for the board.
“So we think we’d have at least that one vote,” he said.
The recently sworn-in commissioner who did not attend the public hearing is eligible to vote, although an ITC spokesperson said it will be up to that individual to decide if she is familiar enough with the case to participate in the decision.
If the sixth is sworn in before the vote, he could also vote.
Steinke said it might be better for the Canadian side if they don’t.
“We thought we did very well at the hearing and so we would prefer it if everybody who voted had been at the hearing.”
Having said that, Steinke said the board feels relatively good about the prospects for a favourable ITC decision, based on the way the hearing went. The session began at 9 a.m. and continued until 7:30 p.m., which is three or four hours longer than normal.
“The commissioners seemed genuinely very keen and interested in our case and I didn’t get the impression they came with any predisposition.”
He contrasted that with the department of commerce hearings that resulted in the imposition of the countervail duty and anti-dumping tariff, a process the board found to be “highly political and frustrating.”
