El Nino, La Nina or El Normal?
It was a fitting title for a presentation given at Manitoba Ag Days last week by Danny Blair from the University of Winnipeg.
Blair, a climatology professor, shared his views on what prairie farmers can expect from the whacky weather phenomena affecting the world’s climate.
In a nutshell, Blair advised farmers to expect the unexpected.
“It’s been a little bit odd,” said Blair. “It’s been not a very good winter for forecasting weather conditions.”
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El Nino caused above normal temperatures in Western Canada last winter. It also brought below average precipitation, a condition that continued into the spring of 1998.
El Nino has since been replaced by La Nina, a weather phenomenon sometimes referred to as the evil twin of El Nino.
Last summer, La Nina prompted stark forebodings of a colder than average winter with above normal snowfall. Although November and December were reasonably mild, Blair believes a series of cold snaps loom, that will drive the overall winter temperature to below normal for 1998-99.
“Expect the coldness to come back,” he said. “I’m confident that we will get fairly cold weather.
“We have this La Nina lurking in the background and that tends to load the dice toward a colder and snowier than normal winter.”
And although it is tough to predict what La Nina may mean this spring, Blair said a likely scenario is below average temperatures in March, April and May. Historically, La Nina usually leads to springs and summers that are drier than normal.
The effects of La Nina could persist through summer, Blair said. He noted that some studies suggest prairie wheat yields are below normal when La Nina occurs.
Blair said he made his forecasts with “some trepidation.” Climate is difficult to forecast, especially long term.
“We don’t have the ability to say with any confidence what it’s going to be like next spring or next summer.”
He ended his presentation with a caution that global warming is starting to have effects on the environment. He noted that 1998 was the warmest year on record for the globe.
In an interview, Blair stressed the need for governments and the farm community to consider the possible effects of global warming.
He cautioned that a rise in global temperatures will affect growing seasons and moisture for fields. Extreme weather conditions, such as floods, droughts and storms, could also become more prevalent.
Weather extremes affect the insurance industry. If those extremes increase, Blair wonders whether the insurance industry will be able to withstand the pressures of escalating claims.
“We need to assess what will likely be coming our way so we’re not caught off guard.
“The system might not change just slowly, but rather rapidly and that would be a worry. If we’re not prepared for that, we’ll feel the pinch.”
