WINNIPEG – It’s common in prairie grain trade jargon to refer to the six major grains when discussing production, transportation and market outlooks.
But if you want to see someone stumped, ask for a list of the Big Six.
They used to be wheat, oats, barley, canola, flax and rye. But, in fact, rye isn’t very big at all any more, when compared to the likes of peas, lentils or even canaryseed.
Despite their growth, these so-called specialty crops continue to befuddle statisticians and most market analysts.
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Oliver Code, head of Statistics Canada’s crop reporting unit, said its reports in recent years have stopped generalizing production in terms of six or eight major grains because it is no longer considered relevant.
But while it is stepping up attention surveys pay to specialty crops, Statistics Canada is still at least two years away from feeling confident in providing early production estimates.
That’s why the July 31 estimate of production released last week contained no mention of specialty crops.
Code said the July survey relies on farmers’ ability to eyeball their yields prior to harvest with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Farmers themselves aren’t yet familiar enough with some of the newer crops to be able to do that.
Providing stocks reports is equally difficult because the patterns of marketing, storage and usage are still evolving.
And in the grain trade, the majority of market reports contain nary a mention of specialty crop prices, let alone market analysis. How will the reduction in hot dog sales due to the baseball strike affect the mustard market?
In fact, these crops don’t even fit that well with the traditional board and non-board marketing venues. Alternative crops have grown astronomically in popularity, but still don’t generate the huge volumes on which the Canadian Wheat Board pools and the bulk handling system are structured.
Pea production now surpasses at least two of the crops on its trading board, but the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange is still trying to develop a contract.
Some are even wondering whether last year’s transportation problems are a sign the system has rationalized itself beyond the ability to handle such increased diversity on short notice.
Code said dropping old jargon like the “six major grains” is the first step in developing an industry mindset that can tackle these challenges.
