GENEVA, Switzerland – Last week’s missed deadline for progress in World Trade Organization talks in Geneva, which came after a previous failure to wrap up a deal by the end of 2004, led to inevitable speculation about the real deadline for a deal.
Many negotiators are pinning their hopes on a meeting of ministers in Hong Kong in mid-December as the “must succeed” date, at least to complete the rough outline of a deal.
“If Hong Kong fails, then I think the round goes into limbo and we are years away,” said one negotiator, speaking off the record.
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“I think a failure in December puts the round in jeopardy but also this whole institution (the WTO).”
Others privately suggest the real deadline for a deal is December 2006.
The reasoning is that American trade negotiating authority expires in summer 2007, so a detailed deal must be reached in time to allow the Americans to get it into their congressional system for approval.
“Even if Hong Kong doesn’t collapse but doesn’t produce the outline of a deal, I can see an emergency ministers’ meeting in mid-’06 to salvage something that can be ratified by summer ’07,” said another.
Part of the debate about timing also involves possible outcomes.
This round of WTO negotiations was launched in late 2001 with grand promises of a deal that would help poor countries develop, while reforming such trade distorting policies as rich country agricultural subsidies and protective tariffs.
Almost four years later, there are questions about how a far less ambitious outcome can be packaged and sold as a major breakthrough in trade policy.
“Whatever result is attained will have to be packaged and sold as significant if the effort is to seem worthwhile,” said a trade specialist with close ties to the WTO process.
