Western Canadian farmers could see slightly higher returns on most wheats in the new crop year, but durum prices are expected to decline.
The Canadian Wheat Board made those predictions Aug. 2 during its annual crop year-end report.
“The slight optimism in milling wheat is offset somewhat by concern over a very large durum crop,” said CWB president and chief executive officer Greg Arason.
He said non-durum wheat prices are expected to move a “little higher” because of a slight reduction in world wheat production and a tightening of stocks.
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Meanwhile, durum prices will feel the pressure of increased production by growers in Western Canada and the large yields expected in the United States. Minor durum exporters such as Turkey and Australia also are increasing their production.
While there are good marketing opportunities for the durum harvested in Western Canada this fall, Arason doubts board customers will be able to absorb all that production.
There was a 47 percent increase in durum acreage planted in Western Canada this spring.
As for two-row designated barley, the wheat board placed the price outlook at slightly above the previous crop year because of an expected tightening of stocks.
Six-row malting barley prices likely will remain soft, Arason said. An expected buildup of stocks in major exporting regions will dampen those prices, as will the increasing presence of new exporters.
Arason said this year’s wheat and durum crops look as though they will be above normal in terms of yield.
Judging by the crops’ appearance in the past two weeks, he said protein and quality likely will be close to average.
Production this year on the Prairies is predicted to reach 19 million tonnes of spring wheat and six million tonnes of durum.
Looking back on the previous crop year, Arason said the board exported 19 million tonnes of grain in 1999-00. That was up more than 25 percent from the 15.1 million tonnes exported in 1998-99.
High grade, high protein wheat and durum were shipped evenly throughout the crop year to meet ongoing customer demand.
The mid-quality grades were moved earlier in the crop year due to competition expected to hit later from other countries, including Australia.
Designated barley for food use was marketed later than usual to take advantage of quality concerns in the U.S. Part of that concern was driven by fusarium in North Dakota crops.
Iran, which bought more than 3.4 million tonnes, was the largest volume buyer of Canadian non-durum wheat in 1999-00.
Canada’s domestic industry was among the other major users of prairie-grown wheat, buying more than 2.1 million tonnes.
The domestic market, which Arason described as “very valuable,” also bought 300,000 tonnes of durum and 1.1 million tonnes of malting barley.
