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Concerns over China affecting canola

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Published: January 16, 2019

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Winnipeg – The ICE Futures canola contacts finished the day stronger, bouncing back from Tuesday’s losses.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean contracts were mixed, oil contracts were slightly weaker and meal contracts stronger. The soy complex had been stronger earlier in the day, but retreated towards unchanged following Tuesday’s comments from United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer who said there has been no significant progress actually made on the U.S./Chinese trade issues.

Demand for canola continues to be soft. There are still concerns the ongoing tensions between China and Canada are affecting canola exports to China.

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The colder weather the Prairies are experiencing is also supportive for canola, as farmer deliveries may slow during the cold snap.

The Canadian dollar was stronger in value today. According to a Winnipeg-based trader this isn’t impacting canola contracts anymore, as the market has already priced in the higher valued dollar.

About 14,894 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 15,341 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,074 of the contracts traded.

In the U.S. traders are feeling uneasy over the latest China news and the continuing government shutdown. With the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) still partially closed there is no data to show what, if any business China has been making in regards to buying U.S. agriculture products.

The dry weather affecting most of Brazil’s soybean areas in December could continue for at least the next two weeks, with fairly spotty rains forecasted.
CBOT corn prices finished the day in the green, regaining some of Tuesday’s lost ground.

The weekly U.S. ethanol production report released Wednesday morning, showed an increase in production last week to 51,000 barrels per day. This pushed stocks higher and caused ethanol prices to drop.

South Korean importers bought 266,000 tonnes of optional origin corn overnight.

Indonesia has a tender out for 30,000 tonnes of corn, which will likely be sourced from South America.

Wheat futures in the U.S. finished the day mixed.

There are concerns that the Southern U.S. Plains will not have enough snow cover to protect the winter wheat crop from this week’s cold snap.

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry is estimating the total grain harvest for 2019 at 114.3 million tonnes, which would be larger than last year’s crop.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 20 cents at US$52.31 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.48 cents, down from 75.38 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3248.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Mar 19 479.40s +3.60 +0.76%

Canola May 19 487.80s +3.80 +0.79%

Canola Jul 19 495.40s +4.00 +0.81%

Canola Nov 19 494.30s +3.90 +0.80%

Canola Jan 20 500.60s +5.50 +1.11%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Mar 19 894-4s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybeans May 19 908-0s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybeans Jul 19 920-6s +1-0 +0.11%

Soybeans Aug 19 926-0s +0-6 +0.08%

Soybeans Sep 19 929-4s +0-6 +0.08%

 

Soybean Meal Mar 19 310.1s +0.8 +0.26%

Soybean Meal May 19 313.7s +0.7 +0.22%

Soybean Meal Jul 19 317.6s +0.7 +0.22%

 

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.23s -0.01 -0.04%

Soybean Oil May 19 28.51s -0.01 -0.04%

Soybean Oil Jul 19 28.79s -0.02 -0.07%

 

Corn Mar 19 374-0s +2-6 +0.74%

Corn May 19 382-2s +2-4 +0.66%

Corn Jul 19 390-0s +2-4 +0.65%

Corn Sep 19 393-6s +2-2 +0.57%

Corn Dec 19 399-2s +2-6 +0.69%

 

Oats Mar 19 295-4s +3-0 +1.03%

Oats May 19 289-6s +3-0 +1.05%

Oats Jul 19 289-6s +4-4 +1.58%

Oats Sep 19 282-2s +7-0 +2.54%

Oats Dec 19 277-0s +2-2 +0.82%

 

Wheat Mar 19 512-4s +1-4 +0.29%

Wheat May 19 518-0s +2-0 +0.39%

Wheat Jul 19 523-0s +2-4 +0.48%

Wheat Sep 19 531-4s +2-4 +0.47%

Wheat Dec 19 545-0s +2-2 +0.41%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Mar 19 565-0s +3-0 +0.53%

Spring Wheat May 19 569-6s +3-0 +0.53%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 577-0s +3-2 +0.57%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 584-2s +3-4 +0.60%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 596-4s +2-6 +0.46%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 495-4s unch unch

Hard Red Wheat May 19 506-4s -0-2 -0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 517-2s +0-2 +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 529-6s +0-2 +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 547-0s +0-4 +0.09%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Feb 19 127.825s +0.875 +0.69%

Live Cattle Apr 19 127.725s +0.300 +0.24%

Live Cattle Jun 19 117.500s +0.450 +0.38%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 19 143.775s -0.975 -0.67%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19 144.700s -0.050 -0.03%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19 145.550s +0.050 +0.03%

 

Lean Hogs Feb 19 60.050s -2.100 -3.38%

Lean Hogs Apr 19 65.075s -1.875 -2.80%

Lean Hogs May 19 70.825s -1.150 -1.60%

 

About the author

Ashley Robinson

Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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