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Plunging soy undermines canola

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Published: November 26, 2018

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 The ICE Futures canola platform finished the day weaker, dragged down by a plunge in the soy complex.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean, oil and meal contracts dropped significantly during the day. Uncertainty over China and United States trade relations and forecasts for record Brazilian soy production dragged contracts down.
Traders are awaiting the outcome of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday at the G20 Summit in Argentina. Many are unsure if an agreement will be reached.

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About 12,000 canola contracts traded, which compares with Friday when 13,208 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,156 of the contracts traded.
In the U.S. markets, according to new data, China imported 6.53 million tonnes of soybeans from Brazil in October, which accounted for 94 per cent of total soybean imports. U.S. imports accounted for only 67,000 tonnes.

Soybean planting in Brazil is ahead of normal as beneficial weather has allowed farmers to get ahead.
CBOT corn prices closed in the red, as the drop in the soy complex weighed on the market.
Weather reports out of the U.S. Midwest have been bearish for corn. Snow fell throughout the Midwest over the weekend, which will make finishing harvest difficult. The forecast is calling for drier conditions over the next few days but a snowstorm is headed for the area later in the week.

Wheat futures in the U.S. finished the day higher.
The wheat market in Australia was up today. Forecasts for rain there could disrupt harvest in the south-eastern part of the continent, which pushed the market higher.
Iraq has a milling wheat tender out. They are looking for wheat from either the U.S., Australia or Canada by Dec. 3.
The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange is pegging the Argentina wheat harvest at 21 per cent done. The Rosario Exchange has slightly lowered its Argentina wheat production estimate to 19 million tonnes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up$1.21 at US$51.63 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.59 cents, down from 75.60 centsthe previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3230.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jan 19  471.80s  -4.30  -0.90%

Canola Mar 19  480.40s  -4.20  -0.87%

Canola May 19  488.90s  -4.10  -0.83%

Canola Jul 19  495.60s  -3.20  -0.64%

Canola Nov 19  493.50s  -1.70  -0.34%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 19  862-2s  -18-6  -2.13%

Soybeans Mar 19  876-2s  -18-4  -2.07%

Soybeans May 19  889-6s  -18-2  -2.01%

Soybeans Jul 19  902-6s  -17-4  -1.90%

Soybeans Aug 19  907-4s  -17-4  -1.89%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18  303.0s  -2.8  -0.92%

Soybean Meal Jan 19  305.1s  -2.9  -0.94%

Soybean Meal Mar 19  307.8s  -2.6  -0.84%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18  26.96s  -0.69  -2.50%

Soybean Oil Jan 19  27.19s  -0.66  -2.37%

Soybean Oil Mar 19  27.44s  -0.65  -2.31%

 

Corn Dec 18  356-0s  -3-0  -0.84%

Corn Mar 19  368-0s  -2-4  -0.67%

Corn May 19  375-6s  -2-4  -0.66%

Corn Jul 19  382-6s  -2-6  -0.71%

Corn Sep 19  386-2s  -2-6  -0.71%

 

Oats Dec 18  277-6s  -8-6  -3.05%

Oats Mar 19  284-2s  -8-2  -2.82%

Oats May 19  284-0s  -9-2  -3.15%

Oats Jul 19  278-2s  -8-2  -2.88%

Oats Sep 19  270-2s  -8-6  -3.14%

 

Wheat Dec 18  507-4s  +7-6  +1.55%

Wheat Mar 19  514-0s  +6-6  +1.33%

Wheat May 19  518-6s  +5-6  +1.12%

Wheat Jul 19  525-0s  +4-6  +0.91%

Wheat Sep 19  534-6s  +3-6  +0.71%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18  577-0s  +2-6  +0.48%

Spring Wheat Mar 19  572-0s  +0-6  +0.13%

Spring Wheat May 19  577-2s  +0-6  +0.13%

Spring Wheat Jul 19  584-2s  unch  unch

Spring Wheat Sep 19  592-6s  unch  unch

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18  464-4s  +3-2  +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19  489-6s  +3-6  +0.77%

Hard Red Wheat May 19  502-6s  +4-2  +0.85%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19  515-6s  +4-6  +0.93%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19  529-4s  +5-0  +0.95%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 18  116.925s  -0.175  -0.15%

Live Cattle Feb 19  120.650s  -0.275  -0.23%

Live Cattle Apr 19  122.875s  -0.275  -0.22%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 19  149.150s  -0.225  -0.15%

Feeder Cattle Mar 19  146.150s  +0.225  +0.15%

Feeder Cattle Apr 19  146.475s  +0.225  +0.15%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 18  57.400s  -1.675  -2.84%

Lean Hogs Feb 19  65.550s  -2.275  -3.35%

Lean Hogs Apr 19  71.300s  -1.100  -1.52%

 

About the author

Ashley Robinson

Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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