Canola holds; soy, wheat drop

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Published: October 25, 2018

ICE Futures canola contracts settled narrowly mixed on Thursday, seeing some consolidation after recent losses after trading to both sides of unchanged throughout the session.

Losses in Chicago soybeans and the advancing Canadian harvest did put some pressure on values.

The latest crop report out of Saskatchewan released earlier in the day showed farmers there were finally making good harvest progress, with only 10 per cent of the canola crop still unharvested as of Oct. 22. Good progress is also expected in Alberta’s next report, which is due on Friday.

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Detail from the front of the CBOT building in Chicago. (Vito Palmisano/iStock/Getty Images)

U.S. grains: Soybean futures set two-week high on US weather worry, soyoil rally

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures touched a two-week high on Friday on worries that heat may threaten U.S. crops and expectations that the country’s biofuel policy would boost demand for soyoil, analysts said.

However, the yields and quality of the later harvested fields will likely be down from earlier estimates, which provided some underlying support.

End-user bargain hunting and weakness in the Canadian dollar also helped keep canola underpinned.

About 29,584 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 24,340 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,892 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell to their weakest levels in a month on Thursday, as poor export demand and bearish technical signals weighed on prices.

Weekly United States soybean export sales were dismal, at only 212,700 tonnes, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, coming in below the already low trade estimates as a number of cancellations were reported.

Seasonal harvest pressure and the ongoing trade dispute with China contributed to the declines.

CORN futures were also pressured lower by poor export demand, with the 350,000 tonnes of weekly business well below trade estimates.

The International Grains Council released updated supply/demand estimates, keeping their world corn production number unchanged at 1.074 billion tonnes while raising the ending stocks forecast by five million tonnes, to 266 million.

WHEAT futures were also lower, following corn and soybeans.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of about 440,000 tonnes were in line with trade estimates.

The IGC raised its world wheat production number for this year to 729 million tonnes, which was a 12 million tonne increase from the last estimate. The ending stocks forecast was also raised by 12 million, to 262 million tonnes.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up xx cents at US$67.03per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.51 cents. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3070

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Name / Contract Last Change % Change

 

Canola Nov 18 482.70s -0.10 -0.02%

Canola Jan 19 491.10s +0.10 +0.02%

Canola Mar 19 498.30s +0.40 +0.08%

Canola May 19 503.70s +0.70 +0.14%

Canola Jul 19 507.80s +0.80 +0.16%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

Chicago

 

Soybeans Nov 18 841-6s -8-4 -1.00%

Soybeans Jan 19 854-4s -9-0 -1.04%

Soybeans Mar 19 868-0s -8-6 -1.00%

Soybeans May 19 882-0s -8-6 -0.98%

Soybeans Jul 19 893-6s -8-4 -0.94%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18 304.3s -1.8 -0.59%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 306.5s -1.8 -0.58%

Soybean Meal Mar 19 307.8s -2.0 -0.65%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.39s -0.22 -0.77%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.61s -0.22 -0.76%

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.86s -0.21 -0.72%

 

Corn Dec 18 361-0s -7-2 -1.97%

Corn Mar 19 373-4s -7-0 -1.84%

Corn May 19 381-4s -6-6 -1.74%

Corn Jul 19 387-2s -6-6 -1.71%

 

Corn Sep 19 389-6s -6-0 -1.52%

Oats Dec 18 285-6s -6-0 -2.06%

Oats Mar 19 278-2s -6-0 -2.11%

 

Oats May 19 281-2s -6-2 -2.17%

Oats Jul 19 283-4s -6-2 -2.16%

Oats Sep 19 282-6s -4-2 -1.48%

 

Wheat Dec 18 487-2s -12-2 -2.45%

Wheat Mar 19 507-6s -12-0 -2.31%

Wheat May 19 521-0s -12-0 -2.25%

Wheat Jul 19 528-2s -11-0 -2.04%

Wheat Sep 19 540-2s -10-4 -1.91%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 569-4s -9-0 -1.56%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 578-2s -8-0 -1.36%

Spring Wheat May 19 586-6s -7-0 -1.18%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 594-6s -6-2 -1.04%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 601-6s -5-2 -0.86%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 486-4s -10-4 -2.11%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 513-0s -10-0 -1.91%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 527-0s -9-6 -1.82%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 536-0s -8-6 -1.61%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 551-6s -8-0 -1.43%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle   Oct 18 113.350s +0.075 +0.07%

Live Cattle   Dec 18 117.075s -1.275 -1.08%

Live Cattle   Feb 19 122.225s -0.550 -0.45%

 

Feeder Cattle   Oct 18 153.975s -0.650 -0.42%

Feeder Cattle   Nov 18 153.950s -1.975 -1.27%

Feeder Cattle   Jan 19 149.050s -2.300 -1.52%

 

Lean Hogs   Dec 18 56.775s -0.750 -1.30%

Lean Hogs   Feb 19 64.550s +0.125 +0.19%

Lean Hogs   Apr 19 70.225s +0.200 +0.29%

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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