Canola continues down; soy too

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Published: September 19, 2018

WINNIPEG – The ICE Futures canola platform continued its downward slide Tuesday, as trade war tensions between the United States and China spilled over.

Soybean contracts at the Chicago Board Trade hit newcontract lows, dragging canola down with it. U.S. President Donald Trump placed new tariffs yesterday on US$200 billion on Chinese goods, China fired back Tuesday morning by placing US$60 billion worth on U.S. goods. Cold and wet weather conditions are still affecting harvest in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta.

The Manitoba canola crop is 85 per cent harvested, according to yesterday’s provincial crop report. Harvest progress was halted in parts of the province last week due to cold and wet weather.

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Photo: JHVEPhoto/Getty Images Plus

U.S. grains: Corn futures lower as farmers sell, soy choppy

Chicago corn futures ticked lower on Tuesday on selling pressure as soybeans chopped up and down, though expectations of a bumper U.S. harvest limited the upside in prices, analysts said.

Statistics Canada will be releasing its updated production estimates using satellite imagery tomorrow.

About 20,273 canola contracts traded, which compares with Monday when 7,774 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,640 of the contracts traded.

In the U.S. CBOT soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, hitting new contract lows. Soyoil and meal contracts were also down.

Trump imposed new tariffs on a list of $200 billion in Chinese goods on Monday. The new tariffs come into effect on Sep. 24 and will start at 10 per cent, before rising to 25 per cent by the end of the year. China fired back Tuesday morning by announcing it would impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. The latest trade war developments weighed on the oilseeds market.

The weekly crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday pegged the U.S. soybean harvest at six per cent complete, which is ahead of the five-year average nof three per cent.

The corn market finished the day lower. The USDA put the U.S. corn harvest at nine per cent complete in its crop progress report. That is ahead of the five-year average of six per cent.

The early harvest progress could come to a halt though in parts of the Corn Belt this week due to wet weather in the forecast. A storm which moved through the upper Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday could see wet conditions plague the area for the next few weeks.

Wheat futures in the U.S. finished the day higher.

U.S. winter wheat seeding is 13 per cent complete, according to the USDA’s crop report. The spring wheat harvest is 97 per cent done.

In Manitoba, the spring wheat harvest is 95 per cent complete, according to Monday’s provincial crop report.

Egypt announced another wheat tender for shipment from Nov. 1 to 10. Last week Egypt bought 235,000 tonnes of Russian wheat. Jordan and Ethiopia also have tenders out for wheat this week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 94 cents at US$69.85 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.06 cents, up from 76.70 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2977.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 18 486.40s -2.40 -0.49%

Canola Jan 19 492.60s -3.00 -0.61%

Canola Mar 19 497.90s -3.20 -0.64%

Canola May 19 502.50s -3.10 -0.61%

Canola Jul 19 506.00s -3.50 -0.69%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 18 814-0s -9-4 -1.15%

Soybeans Jan 19 828-0s -9-2 -1.10%

Soybeans Mar 19 841-4s -9-0 -1.06%

Soybeans May 19 854-6s -9-0 -1.04%

Soybeans Jul 19 865-2s -8-6 -1.00%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 18 300.5s -2.4 -0.79%

Soybean Meal Dec 18 303.3s -2.4 -0.79%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 304.5s -2.0 -0.65%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 18 27.12s -0.31 -1.13%

Soybean Oil Dec 18 27.37s -0.33 -1.19%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 27.61s -0.35 -1.25%

Corn Dec 18 343-2s -4-6 -1.36%

 

Corn Mar 19 355-4s -4-4 -1.25%

Corn May 19 364-0s -4-2 -1.15%

Corn Jul 19 370-6s -4-0 -1.07%

Corn Sep 19 376-0s -4-2 -1.12%

 

Oats Dec 18 245-6s +2-6 +1.13%

Oats Mar 19 250-2s +2-2 +0.91%

Oats May 19 253-2s +2-2 +0.90%

Oats Jul 19 256-0s +2-2 +0.89%

Oats Sep 19 259-4s +2-2 +0.87%

 

Wheat Dec 18 510-4s +4-2 +0.84%

Wheat Mar 19 529-0s +3-6 +0.71%

Wheat May 19 541-4s +2-2 +0.42%

Wheat Jul 19 546-4s +1-0 +0.18%

Wheat Sep 19 555-6s +1-2 +0.23%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 580-2s +5-0 +0.87%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 594-6s +4-6 +0.81%

Spring Wheat May 19 603-2s +4-6 +0.79%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 609-2s +4-4 +0.74%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 614-2s +4-2 +0.70%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 516-0s +3-2 +0.63%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 537-6s +3-6 +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 551-2s +4-0 +0.73%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 552-0s +3-2 +0.59%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 562-0s +2-2 +0.40%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 18 113.225s -0.200 -0.18%

Live Cattle Dec 18 117.975s -0.125 -0.11%

Live Cattle Feb 19 121.850s -0.450 -0.37%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 155.825s -1.500 -0.95%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 158.025s -1.150 -0.72%

Feeder Cattle Nov 18 157.825s -1.200 -0.75%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 18 59.175s +2.725 +4.83%

Lean Hogs Dec 18 57.975s +2.600 +4.70%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 65.800s +1.275 +1.98%

 

About the author

Ashley Robinson

Ashley Robinson writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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