A hardening of attitudes and some backward policy steps in the United States and the European Union spell trouble for World Trade Organization negotiations on agriculture, says the president of the world’s largest farmer organization.
Ontario farmer Jack Wilkinson, president of the International Federation of Agricultural Producers, said in an interview July 17 that recent EU reforms to its agricultural policy are a problem for the WTO.
The reforms reduce EU subsidies tied to production, but also give individual EU countries the right to top up support. France, the most important and protective farm economy in Europe, has indicated it will get back into the national subsidy system. France has also said it expects the EU will make no further concessions at the WTO.
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It is a return to competing national subsidy levels last seen between EU countries 20 years ago. The IFAP president said it is bad news for the WTO attempt to curtail distorting subsidies.
“French president Jacques Chirac gave a very aggressive speech at the first IFAP young farmers’ congress in Paris in June,” Wilkinson said last week.
“He made it clear that European farmers will not pay twice. They suffered some losses in the CAP (European Community ag policy) reform and they will not tolerate further losses at the WTO.”
Meanwhile, Wilkinson said the U.S. is laying down some markers that could make the mid-September meeting of WTO agriculture and trade ministers in Cancun, Mexico a poor bet for an agricultural breakthrough.
After more than two years of talks, negotiators remain far apart on such key issues as market access, domestic subsidies and export subsidies.
The IFAP president said the Americans are signalling they plan to concentrate their energy in WTO talks on the issue that is most sensitive to the Europeans and least threatening to American agricultural interests – market access.
“All of a sudden, the U.S. is saying market access is the issue,” said Wilkinson.
“I think that will not sell in Europe that is about to bring 10 more countries into the union. I think the Americans are feeling hurt and isolationist since they’ve done all these things they think help the world and have won few friends for it.”
Wilkinson said it may be time to quit talking about a major agricultural deal at the WTO and concentrate on more modest agreements that actually result in more trade, even if it is within managed and established guidelines, as Canada is proposing.
“I see all this as a recipe for everyone becoming very polarized heading into Cancun,” he said. “I personally don’t see a substantial deal coming. I am pessimistic.”
Events in Montreal indicated how volatile preparations for trade talks are.
Next week Canadian trade minister Pierre Pettigrew is hosting the last ministers’ meeting before Cancun, a gathering expected to attract 25 trade ministers to try to find some common ground.
Late last week, the host hotel, The Queen Elizabeth in downtown Montreal, cancelled its contract, fearing damage from anti-globalization demonstrations July 28-30. The government scrambled to find a new hotel host.
And the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance cancelled a planned pro-liberalized trade conference because not all delegates and speakers thought they would be safe, now that the conference site has been moved.
