TROIS RIVIERES, Que. – The value of Canadian food exports could hit dizzying heights in the medium term, reaching $34 billion or higher by the year 2005, said a senior federal trade official.
The largest growth is expected to be in value-added products, said Lawrence Dickenson, director general of Agriculture Canada’s international markets bureau.
And that means the creation of tens of thousands of jobs in the food industry.
“This is a very strong growth forecast,” he said.
If these projections are accurate, it would represent a stunning 161 percent increase in the value of exports since Canada’s agriculture ministers and the food industry set their first tentative goal in 1993 of $20 billion in exports by the year 2000.
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That level was reached last year.
Now, trade officials say, the turn-of-century total could be close to $25 billion.
After briefing agriculture ministers, Dickenson told reporters the new trade predictions are not hyperbole.
“Some in the industry say we could be being cautious,” he said. “When you see the investments across the country, I think they are very credible, even cautious, goals.”
For their part, the ministers noted the $20 billion goal had been reached four years ahead of schedule. It was set in 1993 when exports were stuck at $13 billion and was dismissed by some at the time as too optimistic.
They did not endorse the new estimates presented in action plans drawn up by federal and provincial officials. Instead, they called for industry to set new targets and pledged government support to reach them.
The estimates assume a steady growth in sales into eight major markets – the United States, the European Union, Japan, China, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan. They traditionally have taken about 84 percent of Canadian food exports.
Sales to the U.S. alone are projected to increase from an average $8.6 billion between 1993 and 1996 to $18 billion in 2005. The goal is “to position Canada as the agri-food supplier of choice of the U.S.,” said the plan presented to the politicians.
According to Dickenson, processed and value-added products will be the key to the expected growth. Last year, exports of value-added products were worth $11 billion. By the year 2005, the goal is to double that total.
Meanwhile, the value of bulk commodity exports such as grains and live animals will increase just a third to $12 billion from $9 billion last year.
“We will not be neglecting our sales of bulk, which will remain important, but clearly there is a determination to pursue increased sales of processed goods which create jobs here.”
