Wet weather could prevent as much as 300,000 acres of durum from being seeded in south-central and southeastern Saskatchewan.
“It looks like the last 15 to 20 percent of crop might not go in in that region,” said Bruce Burnett, head of weather and crop surveillance for the Canadian Wheat Board.
That could reduce the size of the 2004 crop by around 250,000 tonnes, based on long-term average yields.
That’s not necessarily bad news. A production drop of that magnitude could support durum prices, which are expected to be down in 2004-05 due to increased Canadian supplies and a decline in world trade.
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However, the same rainfall that disrupted seeding is also expected to boost the potential yield of durum seeded earlier in the spring, particularly in western Saskatchewan.
At the end of the day, say market watchers, reduced acreage and increased yield will probably cancel each other out.
“Any losses in area in eastern Saskatchewan are going to be made up for by better-than-expected yields in the major durum-growing regions farther west,” said Glenn Lennox, wheat market analyst with Agriculture Canada.
He said the department probably won’t make significant change to its most recent durum production forecast of 4.9 million tonnes.
Harvested area may be less than the department’s projection of six million acres but yields will likely be better than 30 bushels per acre on which that production forecast is based.
Burnett agreed, saying the rained-out acreage in the south-central and southeastern areas shouldn’t have an impact on the overall market outlook.
“With the improved prospects in the other areas, it’s probably not a significant enough shift to cause any concern from a total production point of view,” he said.
A bigger concern is the quality of crops planted later than usual because to the moisture conditions.
“We’re going to need a very nice September in order to get this durum off with a reasonable quality profile,” he said, referring to crops in southeastern and south-central Saskatchewan.
Robyn Morley, an agrologist with Farr-Mor Fertilizer in Lewvan, Sask., said much of the wheat and durum in the region is in dire need of sun and heat. The crops look spindly and emergence is late and uneven.
Some farmers hoping to sow durum had set a deadline of June 20, she said, and have now turned their attention to seeding something with a shorter maturity, such as flax.
Agriculture Canada forecasts production of 4.9 million tonnes and carryover stocks from 2003-04 of 1.9 million, for total supplies of 6.8 million, compared with the 10-year average of 6.3 million.
Exports are forecast to be 3.2 million tonnes, which Lennox acknowledges could be optimistic, leaving year-end stocks at a burdensome 2.7 million tonnes.
The CWB’s pool return outlook forecasts an export price of $201 a tonne for No. 1, 12.5 percent Canadian western amber durum, compared with $219 for No. 1 CWRS. Durum has traded at a discount to spring wheat since 1990-91.
