Winnipeg, April 19 – Early seeding operations are already underway in parts of Western Canada, and the general sentiment is that farmers are planting more peas and lentils at the expense of most everything else.
Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based acreage estimates of the year on Thursday.
“I think we’ll see a surge in pulse acres,” said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office of Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products in Winnipeg, expressing the sentiment across the sector.
“We’ve never seen contracted prices for pulses as high as this year,” added analyst Wayne Palmer, of Agri-Trend Marketing.
Analysts see lentil acres increasing to 4.4 million to as much as 5.5 million acres, which would be a new record even at the low end.
Peas are forecast at four million to five million.
Last year, Canadian farmers seeded 3.95 million acres of lentils and 3.68 million acres of peas.
Beyond the pulse crops, attention will be largely focused on wheat and canola.
“The general trend seems to be that farmers are disgruntled with wheat, and the wheat acres will be down a bit,” said Ken Ball, of PI Financial in Winnipeg.
U.S. spring wheat acres are expected to be down 14 percent on the year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s prospective plantings report, and the question now is whether that trend will continue in Canada, said Klassen.
Analysts think all-wheat area, which includes durum, spring wheat, and winter wheat, will be steady to down by more than two million acres from the 24.218 million acres seeded in 2015.
Of that total, durum estimates range from about 5.4 million to 6.0 million compared to 5.82 million last year.
While it likely won’t show up until subsequent reports, Jon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions said the breakdown of the varieties of wheat seeded will be interesting.
He expects hard red spring wheat acres will be down the most in the wheat class, with other types, including Canada prairie spring and soft white wheat, likely up on the year.
For canola, “the market needs to encourage acres, and if we come out similar or slightly lower (on acres) it will be friendly for the market,” said Klassen.
After growing 20.095 million canola acres in 2015, expectations for the coming crop range from 19.7 million to 21 million acres, with most estimates leaning towards a slight increase.
Following are the pre-report trade guesses, in million acres.
| PreReport Estimate |
StatsCan 2015/16 |
|
| Canola |
19.70-21.30 |
20.095 |
| All Wheat |
21.50-24.20 |
24.111 |
| Durum |
5.40-6.00 |
5.820 |
| Barley |
6.20-7.00 |
6.527 |
| Flaxseed |
1.50-1.80 |
1.640 |
| Oats |
2.80-3.20 |
3.337 |
| Peas |
4.00-5.00 |
3.680 |
| Lentils |
4.40-5.50 |
3.950 |
