WINNIPEG — India, the world’s largest producer of pulses, needs moisture before winter crops hit the reproductive cycle at the end of January or existing losses will become amplified, says a weather specialist.
The driest areas in India are important pulse production regions in northeastern Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, said Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc.
“That particular region is hurting pretty bad for moisture.”
The region’s vegetative health index suggests the crops are under pressure, and that particular pocket will probably see lower production, Lerner said.
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“Nothing’s a write-off,” he said. “But if it continues to be dry and warm, then yields will be much lower.”
Lerner added that the crop’s health can reverse quickly, and production losses could be limited if pulse crops get rain before moving through the reproductive cycle.
India’s winter pulse crops should enter the reproductive cycle at the end of January or slightly after due to later seeding. Crops went in late because soils were dry last fall and farmers were waiting for moisture following a disappointing summer monsoon.
Lerner expects India will see at least some much-needed rain in coming weeks.
“The question is whether it’ll be well-timed or if it’ll come late. At this point I would still lay fairly high odds that there’s going to be some rain.”
Lerner also expects cooler temperatures into the reproductive season, which will help perk the crops up.
“The thing that hurts crops more than anything else in the world is heat during February. If it’s hot, they’re going to lose a lot of crop.”
One of the biggest factors for India’s recent dry stretch, Lerner said, is the positive phase of Arctic Oscillation — a climate pattern with winds circulating counter-clockwise around the Arctic — which didn’t allow storms into India.
The Arctic Oscillator has recently turned negative, which has allowed a shift to the south.
“There’s plenty of rain moving through the Middle East, which hasn’t been able to move across India, but I think it’s just a matter of time.”Z
