Winnipeg, Sept. 30 – Yields are generally beating earlier expectations as the harvest progresses across Western Canada, which should lead to increases to canola and wheat forecasts when Statistics Canada releases its latest production survey results on Oct. 2.
However, some in the trade believe further increases might be required in subsequent reports.
“As the harvest is moving along, we’re seeing harvest results come in better than what people were thinking prior to getting in the field,” said Jon Driedger, senior analyst with Farm-Link Marketing Solutions. “StatsCan is notorious for revising crop estimates higher long after the fact,” he added.
Pre-report trade estimates for canola range from roughly 13.5 million to 15.2 million tonnes.
That would compare to 13.3 million tonnes in the July Production of Principal Field Crops report released Aug. 21 and StatsCan model-based forecast released Sept. 17 of 14.4 million. In 2014-15 Canadian farmers grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if the final number came in above 15 (million)” said Driedger, although he was uncertain if the October report would be that large.
All-wheat production is forecast at anywhere from 24.7 million to 26.5 million tonnes, which compares with the August estimate of 24.6 million and the year-ago level of 29.4 million tonnes.
Of that total, durum production is estimated at 4.5 million to 5.1 million tonnes. Canadian farmers grew 5.2 million tonnes of durum in 2014-15.
While drought in the western Prairies caused concerns early in the growing season, “weather conditions improved as we went along … with better yields even in some of the worst hit areas,” said Neil Townsend, director of market research services at CWB, which is becoming G3.
He attributed the better-than-expected crops in part to improved varieties and genetics.
The following is a summary of the Statistics Canada July crop production estimates (released Aug. 21) for 2015-16. Pre-report trade estimates are included for comparison.
Production in million tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada, trade.
| Trade estimate | StatCan July survey | 2014 | |
| Durum | 4.5-5.1 | 4.467 | 5.193 |
| All wheat | 24.7-26.5 | 24.625 | 29.42 |
| Canola | 13.5-15.2 | 13.343 | 16.41 |
| Barley | 6.9-7.4 | 7.305 | 7.119 |
| Oats | 3.0-3.4 | 3.312 | 2.979 |
| Flax | 0.85-0.95 | 0.884 | 0.873 |
| Peas | 2.8-3.2 | 2.921 | 3.810 |
