WINNIPEG — CWB is estimating that the Canadian canola crop will produce 12.18 million tonnes in 2015-16 (Aug./July), according to a supply and demand table released today via the Market Research Services Twitter account.
The projection is below a previous estimate from the company of 12.60 to 13 million tonnes, which was released in the June 25 Pool Return Outlook report.
Drought in parts of the western Prairies and excess moisture and other weather problems in the eastern regions are likely behind the reduced production prospects, analysts say.
The CWB projection compares to average trade guesses of 13.5 million tonnes, the company’s supply and demand table showed.
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Agriculture Canada released its own supply and demand tables on July 21, pegging Canadian canola production for 2014-15 at 14.30 million tonnes.
In 2014-15, Canadian canola production totaled 15.56 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada figures.
The latest CWB outlook also pegged Canadian canola ending stocks at 488,000 tonnes for 2015-16, which is well below trade estimates of 925,000 tonnes shown on the company’s table and down slightly from Agriculture Canada’s projection of 500,000 tonnes.
CWB is in the midst of conducting a Western Canada crop tour with complete details set to be released Friday.
Canada canola supply and demand projections for 2015-16 (Aug./July). Source: CWB Market Research Services.
Area in million acres and yield in bushels per acre. Carry-in, production, total supply, domestic use, crush, exports and carry-out in million tonnes.
Trade CWB Ag Canada
Area 19.52 18.77 19.69
Carry-in 1.50 1.43 0.95
Production 13.50 12.18 14.30
Total Supply 15.13 13.74 15.40
Domestic Use 7.45 6.75 7.30
Crush 7.20 6.67 7.20
Exports 6.75 6.50 7.60
Carry-Out 0.93 0.49 0.50
